The Hidden World of Airtricity League Attendances

Over the past few weeks I have shared Extratime's frustration as they searched in vain to get an accurate picture of club attendances on a weekly basis. The purpose of this article is to investigate & draw conclusion about the health, or otherwise, of the Airtricity League. Any investigation is, of course, hampered by incomplete information & partial figures, but we will persevere with the figures that we have.

What Impact Do Airtricity League Clubs Have on Their Community?

Around this time last year, preparations were underway for a glamorous end-of-season friendly between Shamrock Rovers & Liverpool at the Aviva Stadium. 42,000+ attended the match, which featured mainly Liverpool squad players.

The staging of the game & particularly the large attendance antagonised League of Ireland great Dermot Keely to such an extent that he castigated the ‘42000 morons’ who were attending the match on Newstalk’s ‘Off The Ball’ programme. Keely’s comments sparked an in-depth debate about the fickleness of soccer support in Ireland, the seemingly endless fascination with the English game, the apparent paucity of the product on offer in the Airtricity League (in terms of facilities, player quality etc.) & the need of the FAI to address the relevant issues & improve the league.

All of this debate got the grey matter rattling – Was Keely right? What were the reasons for these 42000 not attending their local club grounds on a Friday or Saturday night? What was the correct model to follow to improve things? Stuart Byrne, the former Shels & Pats midfielder, a literate & coherent commentator on the state of the Airtricity League, spoke in detail of the developments made by Sligo Rovers & the ‘impact’ made by the club in the local community, which could be seen in the improved attendances & developing facilities in The Showgrounds. This got me thinking even further – how does a club’s ‘impact’ on its community get measured?

Perhaps the easiest way to establish this ‘impact’ is to look at a mathematical solution – so this is what I did – I took the average home attendance at games, as detailed on extratime.ie, took the 2011 Census figures & did a bit of maths (thanks to MS Excel) – it transpires that (excluding the Dublin based teams as individual areas other than Tallaght cannot be isolated) the percentage of a town’s population that attends Airtricity League matches is 3.8%. That is the ‘impact’ of soccer on the population of Ireland. So what does this figure tell us & how does it compare with leagues of similar standard?

The standard of the Airtricity League is often compared to Leagues One & Two across the water & the number of ex-LOI players plying their trade at this level bears this out, especially in light of Patrick Hoban’s transfer from Dundalk to League Two’s Oxford United last winter. So, how do the League One & Two clubs fare? Again, the same analysis applies – the average percentage of a town’s population that attends matches there is 5% (4% in League Two). Considering that several ‘sleeping giants’ & former Premiership clubs (Bradford, Coventry, Portsmouth, Oldham et al.) are there, is such a discrepancy (1.2%) a reflection of a superior standard of ‘product’ available in England? And remember, the clubs in England don’t have the sporting & cultural behemoth of the GAA to contend with either.

Perhaps our indigenous league is better & having a better ‘impact’ than we give it credit for, despite the negative media coverage that is often pervasive. The tables are given below. (Click to view a larger version of the grid) 

Is The UK Comparison A Fair One?

Is the comparison with the UK a fair one? After all, the country has a 50 million plus population, and the league has major TV deals & global exposure. Is there another European country where football is the second most popular sport, has a similar size population, similar UEFA co-efficient & a similarly over-bearing sporting neighbour?

There is in fact – the former Soviet Republic of Georgia. With a population of 4.48 million (Ireland’s was 4.59 million in the 2011 census) & a UEFA League co-efficient ranking of 34^th (the Airtricity League is 40^th), the similarities are good. Also, football is listed as the second most popular sport in the country, after basketball. Finally, Georgia’s domestic football scene is also dominated by a larger neighbour, with the best players playing in the Russian League. So, how does our league compare to Georgia?

Favourably, very favourably in fact. Georgia’s Umaglesi Liga comprises a Premier Division of 16 teams from 15 cities throughout the country. Dinamo Tbilisi, who played in the USSR’s top league before independence, have won 15 of the 25 league titles in Georgia since their independence from the USSR in 1990. So, how do the attendance figures compare? What is the Georgian clubs impact on their community?

A quick look at the table below presents interesting reading: (thanks to http://www.european-football-statistics.co.uk/attn/avegeo.htm)

15-times champions Dinamo Tbilisi average less than 1,000 supporters per home game. When combined with the other Tbilisi top-flight club, WIT Georgia Tbilisi, less than 1,400 Tbilisi citizens attend football matches at the weekend, from a city of 115,000 people. The Dublin clubs attendance compares very favourably with this, despite Roddy Collins’ recent assertion that only two Dublin clubs should be allowed to go forward, in an attempt to secure the future of the Airtricity League. Only two clubs (FK Guria Lanchkhuti & FC Merani Martvili) make any significant impact on their community. Remember, this is in a country of a similar size population, similar league co-efficient ranking, with similar neighbour-related issues.

So, is comparison with the Georgian League a better indicator of the status of the Airtricity League? As Carlsberg would say, probably.

Do Facilities Make A Difference?

One of the arguments often bandied about is the old ‘Field of Dreams’ notion – if you build it, they will come. Sub-standard facilities are often cited for reasons not to attend League of Ireland on a Friday night. Since the early 1990’s, the English game has had a massive wave of new stadium building & renovations, following on from the recommendations of the Taylor Report. The success of Shamrock Rovers in Tallaght Stadium seems to support the argument that better facilities lead to bigger crowds, but is this the English experience?

In the bottom two League divisions, nine clubs (Chesterfield, Colchester, Crawley Town, MK Dons, Coventry City, Oxford United, Shrewsbury Town, Burton Albion & Morecambe FC) have opened new, custom-built stadiums since 1996, with a further three grounds (Crewe Alexandra, Fleetwood Town & Newport County) undergoing considerable renovations. Have these new facilities attracted increased attendances? In the main, no.

Chesterfield & Crewe have crowds more or less in line with their pre-relocation averages, whilst Crawley & Fleetwood Town (whose ‘impact’ is the most impressive of any of the 48 clubs at this level) saw crowd increases as a result of promotion to higher divisions, but the others all fare quite badly, with percentages below the league average. Perhaps the salutary lesson is that of Coventry City & the Ricoh Arena, where the rent dispute between the clubs & owners saw the team move to Northampton for more than a year & even still an average crowd of just over 9000 from a city with a population of 316000 is a poor ‘impact’ none the less. Also, Limerick FC using Thomond Park for a season didn’t exactly see the turnstiles swinging down there either. The long-promised return to a renovated Market’s Field may prove otherwise. Cork’s relocation to Bishopstown in the 2000’s also created more problems than solutions. Athlone’s new Lissywoollen Stadium also sees low attendances.

Is Away Support A Factor?

I first started attending LOI matches in the late 1980’s, when Pats were exiled in the Harold’s Cross Greyhound Stadium. ‘Big’ games back then generally revolved around matches that, other than the Dublin derbies, attracted a large away support – three teams stood out – Cork City, Derry City & Dundalk. Even now, they are generally attributed as having large travelling support – is this still the case & what difference can it make to the average attendances?

Even at the early stage of the season, it is easy to see who the big draws are – of the top 10 attended matches so far this season, Dundalk were the home team for two, Shamrock Rovers for four, Cork City for three, with Sligo Rovers making up the list. An analysis of the away teams for these top ten fixtures is more difficult, however. Dundalk, Pats & Cork appear twice each, but four other clubs take up the rest of the places.

Does this mean that Dundalk, Pats & Cork have the largest travelling support? Not necessarily, particularly as Pats home attendance is reasonably poor (surprising considering that they are portrayed as one of the more ‘attractive’ footballing sides in the league) – the full end-of season figures will bear this out. Currently, it appears that Cork City & Dundalk may take the honours here, if the early season averages carry on for the remainder of the season (even if just 300 supporters attended the Bray-Cork game in Week 5).

The top ten attended matches (detailed below) are dominated by two factors 1) last season’s top 4 & 2) derbies. Eight of the ten games were hosted by last season’s champions, runners-up & fourth place teams (with the notable absence of third place St. Pats) with the Munster derby topping the derby charts, with two Dublin derbies not far behind. 

The Effect of Midweek Matches

Criticism is often levelled at the league administrators for scheduling midweek games, in order to allow for a mid-season break – clubs complain about constrained revenue flow, clashes with Monday Night Premiership games or Champions League fixtures & the difficulties for part-time players playing in midweek. So, do these complaints stack-up? All we can do is analyse the midweek fixtures so far – Gameweeks 4 & 9. Examine the table below.

The figures bear out the clubs concerns – weeks 4 & 9 saw a drop in overall attendance at Premier Division matches, with Cork, Drogheda, Longford, Pats & Limerick all recording their lowest home attendances with midweek matches.

What Effect Does A Successful Team Have?

Bold figures indicate First Division participation

Depends. Dundalk is a major case in point – just look at the average attendance jump between 2013 (when they were runners-up to Pats) & 2015. Galway’s crowds have increased significantly since their re-establishment & promotion has helped there also. Cork’s average has also increased as the team challenges for honours under John Caulfield, whilst Longford have also benefitted from a successful team & promotion. On the negative side, Drogheda’s attendances have dipped since their bright start under Robbie Horgan in 2014 & Limerick are running at about half of the 2014 average. These are concerns.

A large number of clubs (Sligo, Bohs, Pats, Derry, Bray) are fairly steady, whilst some are growing their attendances, albeit slowly, season-by-season – Shamrock Rovers, Finn Harps & Wexford Youths being the prime examples.

Conclusions:

- Stop being so hard on the league – accentuate the positives, don’t focus on the negatives. The Airtricity League is not, and never will be, the Premiership, La Liga or even the Sky Bet Championship. So let’s stop comparing ourselves to them – we are the Hyundai to their Ferrari. So let’s accentuate the positive by selling what we have in the correct way. There’s a reason why Hyundai are grabbing a sizeable chunk of the car market in Ireland & a huge amount of that is down to advertising. So, let the FAI harness the best PR agencies in the country to get behind the product. Be more visible & positive.

- Follow the model of successful community clubs, such as Sligo Rovers, which make a significant impact on their community. Copy, resource & expand.

- Stop expecting overnight miracles. The sporting mindset & culture of people won’t change overnight. Start medium-long term planning for the league – where do we want to be in 15-20 years’ time? The MLS in America has a planned long-term expansion programme, which sees low-level expansion, in custom-built stadiums – they have spent 25 years building the league slowly, with spectacular results. Not bad for a country that didn’t even have a competitive league when they hosted the 1994 World Cup. Let’s adopt a plan similar to this, adapted to the Irish situation.

- Don’t build white elephants – either grounds or clubs. The experiences of Cork in Bishopstown or Sporting Fingal in general, show that often plans are misconceived or based on unreal expectations (& the continuation of a booming property market). Consult & engage with the community, become grounded in your local area & impact, however small, should follow. Only build stadiums where they are needed & will work.

- From small acorns big oak trees grow. Start small & work upwards. Start with the kids in primary schools & try to keep them. Make it fun. Support the teachers with equipment & training. Make it fun. Keep them on board, in whatever capacity you can.

- Stop comparing the league to the UK. Look at countries of similar size & similar ranking, like Georgia. Let’s place the league comparison argument in its proper context.

- Stop comparing the FAI to the GAA/IRFU. The GAA doesn’t have the same competition on the neighbouring island. It doesn’t have the same commitment to international teams, at all ages & both genders. The GAA has had a major head start, particularly in rural areas where many schools still don’t compete in soccer tournaments. The IRFU’s international perspective deals with eight/nine top-class rugby nations. They are not comparable organisations. Membership of FIFA/UEFA has its benefits, but also has its commitments. Should the FAI be doing more? Absolutely – but they can’t be expected to do everything either.