Extratime Bets - Sligo Rovers v St. Pats

Goals win games – but none are more important than the first one of any match.

It can be said with a fair degree of confidence that the defining moment of today’s potential  Airtricity League title decider between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick’s Athletic at the Showgrounds (3.45pm; ‘live’ RTE Two) is likely to be the game’s opening goal.

Assuming there is a goal – and that is by no means guaranteed.

Nine times out of 10 this season the team that has scored the first goal of the game has not lost the match.

Of those instances, 75pc of the time the side that has scored first has gone on to win the game. The other 25pc, naturally, have ended in draws.

Of the five instances in which Sligo have conceded the game’s opening goal, they have only won on one occasion (20pc). Of the eight instances in which the opposition have claimed the game’s first goal in matches involving St Pat’s, the Saints have recovered to win two of them (25pc).

All of which is useful to know if you are planning to trade in-running once the action kicks-off at the Showgrounds today.

You should also note that, according to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely scoreline is a 0-0 draw. There is 20.3pc chance of the game ending goalless. There is a 53.1pc probability St Pat’s will get no goals.

While there is a 38.3pc chance Sligo will get no goals either, there is a 36.7pc probability – only marginally lower – that they will score precisely one. There is a 33.6pc chance St Pat’s will net exactly one.

While our predictive methods see Sligo as the more likely winner, St Pat’s remain unbeaten on their travels since October of last year – yes, 12 months ago now.

Both the sides’ previous two meetings this season have resulted in Under 2.5 goals, which is the way to go again.

For more - visit Robert's Reid's website - http://irishfootieindex.wordpress.com/