Sligo to win, but first goal is crucial

There is a 51.4% probability that Cork City will fail to score against Sligo Rovers at Turner’s Cross in the live televised Airtricity League Premier Division fixture on Setanta Ireland tonight (8pm).

According to our goal probability distribution data, it is more likely that Tommy Dunne’s side will fail to score than get on the scoresheet.

Remember, they failed to hit the target on Sligo’s last visit to Leeside on Friday, 20 April, when a Danny North goal on 79 minutes earned the Bit O’Red a 1-0 victory.

That is also the most likely scoreline today.

According to two of our three predictive methods, a 1-0 win to Sligo is the more likely outcome.

There is a 17.3% chance the game will end 1-0 in Sligo’s favour, while there is a 43.8% probability the Bit O’Red will score at least twice, but give the over/unders market a miss.

In all instances, the betting odds overstate the ‘true’ odds.

Cork have won just two of their last seven fixtures at home, so a trip to Turner’s Cross will hold no fear for Ian Baraclough’s side, who have been perched on top of the Premier Division since their 2-1 win against Bray Wanderers at the Carlisle Grounds on Friday, 6 April.

As ever the first goal – assuming the match does not end goalless – should prove crucial.

Be advised that Cork have yet to win a match in 2012 after conceding the game’s opening goal.

On the nine occasions in which the opposition have scored first, they have drawn three and lost six of those games.

Sligo have managed to win just once from five occasions in which they have conceded the game’s opening goal.

It is something to bear in mind, especially if you are trading in-running.

A first title since 1977 is getting closer but with games against St Patrick’s Athletic (home), Drogheda United (away) and Shamrock Rovers (home) to finish with, the long-time league leaders cannot afford a slip up in Cork.

Recommendation: Sligo win