Extratime Bets - Monday Night Football

There is a greater likelihood of Under 2.5 goals as opposed to Over 2.5 goals in the Airtricity League Premier Division fixture involving St Patrick’s Athletic and Derry City at Richmond Park on Monday (3 September; 7.45pm).

According to our calculations, there is a 64.3 per cent probability of two or fewer goals at the Inchicore venue. This equates to ‘true’ odds of 1.55.

So the general 1.62 (implied probability 61.7pc) about Under 2.5 goals at the time of writing means the betting odds understate the ‘true’ odds and represents ‘value’.

St Pat’s are on a run of eight consecutive unders, while Derry’s last five outings in the Premier Division have all produced two or fewer goals.

The sides’ only other meeting this season (Friday, 4 May) ended in a 2-0 win to St Pat’s at the Brandywell.

According to our calculations, there is a 58.6pc chance of Under 2.5 goals in the game between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians at The Showgrounds on Monday (3 September; 8pm; ‘live’ Setanta Ireland).

This equates to ‘true’ odds of 1.7.

Stan James are among those that go a best 1.73 (implied probability 57.8pc) about two or fewer goals.

The sides’ two previous meetings this season have ended in a 1-0 win to Sligo on Bohs’ last visit to The Showgrounds (Friday, 16 March), while the teams played out a goalless draw at Dalymount Park on the last occasion they met (Friday, 1 June).

If you want the odds in your favour, you should be going for unders not overs in these two fixtures.

That is not to say that there will not be three or more goals at Richmond Park and The Showgrounds, it is just less likely that there will be.

You want the odds on your side, not against you.