Extratime Bets - St Pats v Sligo Rovers

There is a greater likelihood of under 2.5 goals in the Airtricity League Premier Division fixture involving St Patrick’s Athletic and Sligo Rovers at Richmond Park on Friday (24 August; 7.45pm).

According to our calculations, there is a 55.8 per cent chance of two or fewer goals when Sligo visit the Inchicore venue. But the betting odds quoted by the leading firms overstate the ‘true’ odds of such an outcome.

So our advice is to give this aspect of the market a miss.

Even the best-priced 1.62 (implied probability 61.7pc) chalked up by Pinnacle Sports offers no ‘value’. The ‘value’ instead lies with over 2.5 goals.

But siding with St Pat’s to be involved in a game with three or more goals appears highly implausible. Of their 20 league games this season, 16, or 80 per cent, have resulted in two or fewer goals.

What’s more, four of their five matches against fellow top-four sides in 2012 have ended in under 2.5 goals. Also, their last seven matches have all featured two or fewer goals – (1-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2, 1-1 and 1-0).

In contrast, five of Sligo’s last seven games have featured over 2.5 goals, while three of their five matches against fellow top-four sides have resulted in three or more goals. With Sligo providing the opposition, there is hope of a few goals in this game.

According to our goal probability distribution data, there is, at best, a 6.9pc chance of precisely three goals. That would involve Sligo winning 2-1.

But even the most likely scorelines are not that likely, so the 6.9pc is not necessarily prohibitively short. Do not be put off by that figure.

We also note that no side has been involved in eight consecutive games under 2.5 goals this season. The odds of that happening at the outset were 256-1 – chunky and unlikely.

With most of the money chasing under 2.5 goals, we suggest you go for over 2.5 instead. That way you will avoid being part of the herd and also ensure ‘value’ for your money.

If you do elect for three or more goals, remember this is a contrarian trade.

Of the leading firms, Boylesports and Stan James are a best-priced 2.38 (implied probability 42pc) about three or more goals.

For more from Robert Reid - visit Irish Footie Index