Ireland and EURO 2024: Time for optimism not pessimism

UEFA EURO 2024 qualifying round draw at Messe Frankfurt

UEFA EURO 2024 qualifying round draw at Messe Frankfurt Credit: Lukas Schulze/UEFA/Getty Images

There are three words that get my juices flowing and make the hairs on the back of my neck stand up. 

Nations. League. Permutations.

Sunday’s EURO 2024 qualifying draw would have come as a sucker punch to Irish fans with perhaps a sly smirk on the faces of the Kenny haters. But in Kenny’s kids - of which there will be more of by the time March 2023 rolls around - and the glorious Nations League fall outs, we should be optimistic about the next 12 months.

Any Irish fan who is still ignorant enough to dismiss the Nations League needs a reality check; it is crucial for teams at our level, and it has once again thrown us a bone when we didn’t deserve it.

A competition that the Republic of Ireland have performed so poorly in since its inception has ironically been so good for us in terms of throwing us lifelines. A technicality preserved our League B status after ‘relegation’ under Martin O’Neill. We were unbelievably rewarded a EURO 2020 playoff despite finishing third in qualifying – the Nations League coming to our aid again.

Now the Boys in Green who have not hit the dizzying heights of second seeds since the EURO 2016 Qualifiers – where they finished third – are looking at yet another mission impossible under Stephen Kenny.

Everything about the former Dundalk manager’s tenure thus far has been to build the Irish team from the depths of despair from the rubble of the John Delaney fallout to qualify the Euros. But being third seeds and being pitted against the Netherlands and the current world champions France – not mention Greece - has seemingly put the nail in the coffin in this never-ending Stephen Kenny referendum.

Progress

Progress has been evident with Kenny’s Kids with encouraging performances against Portugal, Serbia, Ukraine and a superb win over Scotland proving the young Irish team is emerging. 41,000 fans turned out for the Armenia game recently. That would never happen under the previous regimes where an outdated caveman style football had left us at an extremely low ebb.

Such fervent public backing is admirable but if this project is going to come to fruition we need results. Sunday’s draw was not the best start though...



Should third seeds expect to qualify for tournaments? No. Although the hope that Ireland might finally find themselves in the mix at the business end of qualifying next year seems unlikely.

However, amazingly, the much-maligned UEFA Nations League has reached out to us. It's complicated but to put it as simply as possible...

Permutations

The upcoming EURO qualifiers will only decide 20 of the 23 teams heading to Germany. The more higher-ranked teams that progress to the finals if Ireland don’t qualify automatically, the more likely a playoff becomes for the Boys in Green.

Ireland are ranked 26th in the UEFA Rankings which means we don’t want the likes of Romania, Sweden, Turkey, Armenia and Montenegro etc qualifying automatically.

Any fan who has the ignorance to dismiss the Nations League needs to be educated, they need a reality check. After all, it’s how Scotland qualified for EURO 2020 where they won 0-0 vs England. The Nations League is a great competition and it is vital for sides like Ireland.



That might seem like the only positive to come from Sunday, but when the dust settles and the clouds part I think there will be a more optimistic outlook.

Performances

Fixtures against the Netherlands and France are fantastic opportunities for our young team – who have performed well against the bigger nations – to flourish.

The two games against Greece, who were arguably the worst case scenario for the fourth seeded team, will be crucial. To show if Ireland have really improved it is imperative we pick up at least four points if not six.

The June fixture away to the EUR0 2004 champions was another X on the ever growing list of bad luck dealt Kenny’s way but a result is vital otherwise we face being ruled out of another group in the first two games.

Being grouped with France is obviously a daunting task but playing them first might be the time to play them. How will they perform in the World Cup? How will those players be fitness wise after the resumption of the club season? Will they have a managerial change and some player retirements? 

A chance to catch them on the hop perhaps. 

The Netherlands have flattered to deceive in the last decade and Louis Van Gaal will not be in the dugout next year so there is also a feeling of the unknown with the Dutch side who are playing their first world cup since reaching the semi-finals in 2014.

Are they ‘no great shakes’ Bill?

Gibraltar will most likely play the role of whipping boys in this five-team group although Mick McCarthy’s charges scraped past the minnows in EURO 2020 Qualifying – so our struggles against the lower sides has been ongoing before Kenny’s reign. Just be thankful we don’t have Georgia, the scourge of our 2018 and 2020 campaigns.

Players

The quick hot take is that Ireland seem well stocked in two of the three thirds of the pitch. We have a young defence and goalkeeper capable of holding their own against anyone while our strike force has proven to be lively with Michael Obafemi emerging as ‘the one’ who could be a talismanic figure, but his fitness will always be a concern.

It is in the middle of the park where Ireland have been guilty of losing control in the second half of games and experienced heads such as Jeff Hendrick, Alan Browne and Conor Hourihane have not provided that stability this year.

Personally I still have time for Hendrick in Ireland squads. Up until this year he had played some of his best football in an Irish jersey under Stephen Kenny and I see him as a valuable squad member. Always slated by fans if he is average or below, but often dismissed when he does shine.

Several Ireland U21 internationals emerged as candidates for senior call ups this November and beyond with Aaron Connolly and Festy Ebosele likely to force their way back in while Evan Ferguson could be an experiment worth testing.

Will Smallbone has been tipped to be a starter for the next year while a January move for Conor Coventry could make him a regular inclusion in senior squads meaning some of our ageing players in that department can be phased out.

Matt Doherty made his first Tottenham start of the season at the weekend but his appearance wasn’t the eye catching news. That came in the form of Joe Hodge who impressed as a half-time sub for managerless Wolves at Stamford Bridge.

Tipped for big things after he played a starring role in the Ireland U-19 side that reached the semi finals of the European Championships. His omission from the team of the tournament was a surprise but he could potentially be drafted into Kenny’s plans if he can secure regular game time either at Molineux or on loan. 

It is perhaps too early for him, but he could prove to be a metronomic figure in the middle.

Ireland have established themselves as an exciting, vibrant counter attacking team who have caused the bigger sides countless problems over the last twelve months.

Progression

Signs of progress were evident in Ireland’s recent 2-1 loss to Scotland which included seven of Kenny’s U21s in the starting XI. Veteran figures Matt Doherty and James McClean bumped up the average age of a youthful team that was just 24.3.

Underage progression has been seamless under Kenny’s reign with a clear structure and pathway in place with an ethos on progressive attacking football the undertone.

Kenny of course has had his shortcomings, the main flaw being results. Admittedly the time is now for results and he will be ultimately judged on that next year.

But Irish football is heading in the right direction and with nothing to lose in the next qualifying campaign this is a group to be attacked and who knows we’ve pulled off the impossible before.

About Rónán MacNamara

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