Explainer: Ireland’s complicated potential play-off route to the Women’s World Cup

Wellington will host games in the 2023 FIFA World Cup and possibly a play-off for Ireland to get to the tournament

Wellington will host games in the 2023 FIFA World Cup and possibly a play-off for Ireland to get to the tournament Credit: Johnny Hendrikus/FIFA

If there is a complicated qualification process for a football competition, we love the drama of it all here at extratime.com.

We embraced the UEFA Nations League from the off and more recenelty wallowed in the back door route for Shamrock Rovers as they went from the Champions League qualifiers, through the Europa League competition and into the Europa Conference League group stage.

Now it is the time of the nearly indecipherable 2023 World Cup play-off route to shine. 

We have got the details of the UEFA play-off and the back door route for one European team through the FIFA play-offs and what it all means for the Girls in Green.

Buckle up.

What must Ireland do to make the World Cup play-offs?

The Republic of Ireland have two more matches in the qualification campaign for the 2023 tournament in Australia and New Zealand. 

They are looking to secure second spot behind Group A table toppers Sweden.

Vera Pauw’s tigerish team play Finland on Thursday in a sold out Tallaght Stadium and follow that up with a match away to Slovakia on Tuesday week.

A play-off will be secured if 



(a)  Ireland beat Finland

(b)  Ireland draw with Finland and beat Slovakia

(c)  Ireland draw with Finland, draw or lose against Slovakia and Finland draw or lose at home to Sweden

(d)  Ireland lose to Finland 1-0 or 2-1, beat Slovakia and Finland draw at home to Sweden

(e)  Ireland lose to Finland, beat Slovakia and Finland lose at home to Sweden

The tiebreakers rules for if Ireland finish level on points with Finland are noted in Regulations Article 13.01 here (it is head-to-head differentiation first rather than typical group goal difference).



At Friday’s press conference, Vera Pauw was asked about the play-off route and the Dutch coach said she was very much focusing on the Finland result only. 

“Of course we did (look at play-offs) but you know our own conclusion is let's wait and see,” said Pauw. “We need to get this game against Finland first and if we would go to the playoff and we will wake up, get the draw and we will know where we go. 

“You cannot plan for this. Can you?!? Me neither." 

How many teams from the play-off route?

The nine runners up in each of UEFA’s group enter the play-off route. There are two qualification positions that teams can claim through that European football association play-offs, with a third UEFA team getting a further back-door after that by entering an even more complicated FIFA play-off next year.

So if Ireland secure the play-off do they just have to play one team, home and away, to make the tournament next year in the southern hemisphere?

Ah now come on. That would be just too damn boring now wouldn’t it.

The process is that the three best runners-up from the nine UEFA groups will be seeded directly to round 2 of the play-offs while the six remaining runners-up contest three single-leg play-offs in round 1 to provide three winners.

It looks unlikely that Ireland will secure one of the best runners-up spots even by beating both Finland and Slovakia.

“Have you seen the other groups?” asked Pauw. “It will be difficult (to be one of best runners-up) but you don't know what happens. First Finland. First Finland because as we say in Dutch 'don't sell the skin of a bear before you shoot him'. 

What does 'don't sell the skin of a bear before you shoot him' mean?

Well this one turned into a bit of a debate at the press conference. The Irish Times reporter wondering with Pauw is that like “Don't count your chickens, before they hatch?”

She said: “Yeah, it is the same thing. I didn't know that expression.”

It was at this point the Irish Independent reporter told her of a Trapattoni saying “The cat is not yet in the sack.”

Okay. Less about weird sayings that different countries including our own have. Can you please tell me more about these play-offs?

The three winners from round 1 and the three teams who were seeded directly to round 2 will compete in single-leg play-offs. 

The two play-off winners with the highest ranking (based on results in the qualifying group stage and round 2 play-offs) will qualify for the finals. 

The remaining play-off winner will compete as UEFA’s single representative in an inter-confederation play-off in February 2023 in New Zealand.

So that’s a simple one off match to earn the final spot is it?

Hahahahaha. 

No.

The team from UEFA will compete with nine others for the final three qualifying spots for the tournament at Waikato Stadium in Hamilton/Kirikiriroa and North Harbour Stadium in Auckland/Timaki Makaurau at the FIFA play-off tournament from 17 to 23 February 2023. 

So how does the FIFA play-off tournament work?

There are ten participating teams in the tournament coming from Asia (two), Africa (two), North and Central America and the Caribbean (two), South America (two), Europe (one) and Oceania (one).

Two nations from Asia – Thailand and Chinese Taipei – have already confirmed their participation with the remaining eight teams to qualify for the FIFA play-off tournament through their continental tournaments.

Four teams will be seeded in the tournament based on the latest FIFA/Coca-Cola Women’s World Ranking prior to the play-off draw, with a maximum of one seeded team per confederation.

In Group 1, comprising three teams, seed 1 will play for a place in the FIFA Women’s World Cup against the winners of the knockout game involving the two unseeded teams in the group.

In Group 2, comprising three teams, seed 2 will play for a place in the FIFA Women’s World Cup against the winners of the knockout game involving the two unseeded teams in the group.

In Group 3, comprising four teams, seeds 3 and seed 4 will play against the two unseeded teams in the group, with the two winners then playing for a place in the FIFA Women’s World Cup.

“It is a very hard and long road to go still,” said Pauw. “I know that everyone is excited. We are also excited for the position where we are. We deserve it but we have to be realistic and go game by game. Very hard. Very hard route.

“You can end up that we have to win four games to qualify, whereas another country needs only one play-off win to qualify.”

Well at least the qualification process for the next Euros will be simpler? Won’t it?

Would you believe it that it seems like it is going to get even more complicated as Vera Pauw explained that it looks like qualification will be split into three tiers.

“There are plans to create a first, second and third tier in the next qualification campaign. 

“The first tier will have the top 16 countries based on Uefa’s coefficient points, not including friendly games.For example, it would bring Ireland, as well as Scotland and Wales, into the second tier.

“Then the group winner from the second tier, after playing two years on the lower level, need to play the second team from the top tier. 

“It means the chance of qualifying will be minimised instead of being open to the second tier. The top teams will go away from the rest and stop the game’s development.”

This doesn’t sound good. Is the FAI looking to see if they can influence changing this proposal?

Yes they are. FAI CEO Jonathan Hill is meeting with UEFA President Aleksander Ceferin on Monday on Monday to discuss.

About Macdara Ferris

Macdara Ferris is a contributor since 2007 to Hoops Scene (Shamrock Rovers' match day programme) and is the co-author of two books on Shamrock Rovers - 'Tallaght Time: Shamrock Rovers 2009 to 2012' (with Karl … View Full Profile