EPL Predictions - Leicester City -v- Manchester United

Leicester City (1) v Manchester United (2)

None of our predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see Manchester United losing against Leicester City in the English Premier League at The King Power Stadium on Saturday (5.30pm).

 

The score prediction heuristic suggests United will win. Poisson and Rateform both indicate a draw.

 

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 12.2 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.4pc probability Leicester will score exactly one goal. There is a 33.5pc chance United will score precisely one.

 

 

 

Leicester (vertical axis) v Man United (horizontal axis)



Goals

0

1

2

3

4



5

0

7.1

10.6

7.9

3.9

1.5

0.4

1

8.1

12.2

9.1

4.6

1.7

0.5

2

4.7

7.0

5.3

2.6

1.0

0.3

3

1.8

2.7

2.0

1.0

0.4

0.1

4

0.5

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.1

0.0

5

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

 

The score prediction heuristic goes 3-2 to United. But there is only a 2.6pc probability of such an occurrence, which doesn’t make it very likely, does it? There is a 12.5pc probability United will score exactly three goals. There is a 21pc chance Leicester will score precisely two. A caveat! Seven of United’s last eight games in all competitions have produced two goals or fewer. The main message to take is that the score prediction heuristic sees United winning, possibly by a one-goal margin.

    About Robert Reid

    Robert Reid is a sports sub-editor at The Irish Sun. Robert trades the football markets, both here and in the UK. He has the prestigious MSTA designation from the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) in … View Full Profile