Premier League Predictions: Gameweek 12

Stoke City (14) v Chelsea (15)

None of the predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see Stoke losing against Chelsea at the Britannia Stadium (5.30pm).

Both Poisson and Rateform favour a draw. The score prediction heuristic suggests a win for Stoke.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 13.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 35.9pc probability Stoke will score exactly one goal. There is a 36.6pc chance Chelsea will score precisely one goal.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 win for Stoke. There is a 12pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 33.6pc chance Chelsea will get no goals.

Sunderland (19) v Southampton (7)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Southampton against Sunderland at the Stadium of Light (3pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-1 win for Southampton. There is a 9.5 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 25.9pc probability Southampton will score exactly two goals. There is a 36.7pc chance Sunderland will score precisely one goal.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests a 2-1 win for Southampton.

In addition to a unanimous win verdict for Southampton, this game has Over 2.5 goal potential.

Elsewhere, the three predictive methods indicate a unanimous win verdict for Manchester United against West Brom at Old Trafford. All three predictive methods indicate unanimous draw verdicts for the fixture between Leicester and Watford at King Power Stadium andNorwich and Swansea at Carrow Road.

The predictive methods do not see Bournemouth losing at home to Newcastle. The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-1 win for the Cherries (8.3pc chance). Both Poisson (1-1; 10.1pc chance) and Rateform favour a draw.

The predictive methods are inconclusive for the fixture between West Ham and Everton at Upton Park. Poisson favours West Ham (2-1; 8.7pc chance), the score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-1 win for Everton (3.7pc chance), while Rateform indicates a draw. This match has Over 2.5 goal potential.