League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 35

Bohemians (5) v Cork City (2)

Two of the three predictive methods – Poisson and Rateform – favour a win for Cork City at Dalymount Park (7.45pm). The score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, favours a victory for Bohemians, who remain in contention for European football next season. To clinch a place in the Europa League, they must win and hope St Pat’s lose to Galway United at Eamonn Deacy Park.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Cork. There is a 12.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 33.1pc probability Cork, who could still be overtaken by Shamrock Rovers for the runners-up spot, will score exactly one goal. There is a 39pc chance Bohemians will get no goals.

However, the score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-0 victory for Bohemians. There is just a 3.7pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Bohemians 0, Cork 1 (12.9pc); (2) Bohemians 1, Cork 1 (12.2pc); (3) Bohemians 0, Cork 2 (9.9pc).

Dundalk (1) v Bray Wanderers (8)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Dundalk at Oriel Park (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 16.3 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 24.7pc probability Dundalk will score exactly two goals. There is a 66.1pc chance Bray will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 4-0 victory for Dundalk. There is a 9.7pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Dundalk 2, Bray 0 (16.3pc); (2) Dundalk 3, Bray 0 (14.5pc); (3) Dundalk 1, Bray 0 (12.2pc).

Galway United (10) v St Patrick’s Athletic (4)

Two of the three predictive methods – Poisson and Rateform – favour a win for St Pat’s at Eamonn Deacy Park (7.45pm). The Saints need to avoid defeat to be sure of securing European football next season. However, the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, favours a win for Galway.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-1 win for St Pat’s. There is a 10 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 27.1pc probability St Pat’s will score exactly two goals. There is a 36.8pc chance Galway will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-2 victory for Galway. There is just a 1.7pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Galway 1, St Pat’s 2 (10pc); (2&3) Galway 0, St Pat’s 2 & Galway 1, St Pat’s 1 (both 9.8pc).

Longford Town (6) v Derry City (7)

None of the predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see Derry losing at the City Calling Stadium (7.45pm).

Both Poisson and Rateform favour a draw. The score prediction heuristic indicates a win for Derry.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 13.5 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.7pc probability Longford will score exactly one goal. There is a 36.8pc chance Derry will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-0 victory for Derry. There is only a 2.2pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Longford 1, Derry 1 (13.5pc); (2) Longford 1, Derry 0 (13.2pc); (3) Longford 0, Derry 1 (12.5pc).

Shamrock Rovers (3) v Drogheda United (11)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Shamrock Rovers, who can still finish runners-up in the Premier Division. There is a 16.8 per cent chance of such an occurrence. The score prediction heuristic suggests a similar outcome. There is a 26.7pc probability Rovers will score exactly two goals. There is a 62.9pc chance Drogheda, who could be relegated if they lose, will get no goals.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Shamrock Rovers 2, Drogheda 0 (16.8pc); (2) Shamrock Rovers 1, Drogheda 0 (15.1pc); (3) Shamrock Rovers 3, Drogheda 0 (12.5pc).

Sligo Rovers (9) v Limerick FC (12)

Two of the three predictive methods – Poisson and Rateform – favour a win for Sligo at the Showgrounds (‘live’ RTE 2, 7.45pm). However, the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, favours Limerick, who must win to have any chance of avoiding automatic relegation.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-1 win for Sligo. There is a 9.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 27.1pc probability Sligo will score exactly two goals. There is a 33.6pc chance Limerick will score precisely one. By the same token, there is an almost equal likelihood the game will end in a 1-1 draw. There is a 9pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 26.8pc chance Sligo will score exactly one goal. Both outcomes would see the Shannonsiders relegated.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 4-2 win for Limerick. There is just a 1.2pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Sligo 2, Limerick 1 (9.1pc); (2) Sligo 1, Limerick 1 (9pc); (3) Sligo 2, Limerick 2 (6.8pc).

Finn Harps (2) v UCD (3)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Finn Harps at Finn Park, Ballybofey (7.45pm) in the First Division promotion/relegation play-off second leg. Finn Harps lead 1-0 from the first leg at The UCD Bowl.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Finn Harps. There is a 13.8 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 35.6pc probability Finn Harps will score exactly one goal. There is a 38.9pc chance UCD will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-0 win for Finn Harps. There is an 8.9pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Finn Harps 1, UCD 0 (13.8pc); (2) Finn Harps 1, UCD 1 (13.1pc); (3) Finn Harps 0, UCD 0 (10.8pc).