League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 34

Cork City (2) v Dundalk (1)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score predictions heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Dundalk at Turner’s Cross (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 14.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.4pc probability Dundalk will score exactly one goal. There is a 38.8pc chance Cork will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-1 win for Dundalk. There is a 3pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Cork 0, Dundalk 1 (14.1pc); (2) Cork 1, Dundalk 1 (13.4pc); (3) Cork 0, Dundalk 0 (12.2pc).

Drogheda United (11) v Longford Town (7)

None of the predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score predictions heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see Longford losing at United Park (7.45pm).

Two of them – Rateform and the score prediction heuristic – indicate a win for Longford. Poisson suggests a draw.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 12.8 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 35.9pc probability Drogheda will score exactly one goal. There is a 35.6pc chance Longford will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 5-2 win for Longford. Likely? Not really! There is only a 0.2pc probability of such an occurrence. The main message to take is that the score prediction heuristic – similar to Rateform – indicates a win for Longford.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Drogheda 1, Longford 1 (12.8pc); (2) Drogheda 0, Longford 1 (10.3pc); (3) Drogheda 1, Longford 0 (10pc).

Limerick FC (12) v Shamrock Rovers (3)

None of the predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score predictions heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see Shamrock Rovers losing at Markets Field (‘live’ RTE Two; 7.45pm).

Two of them – Poisson and Rateform – indicate a win for Rovers. The score prediction heuristic suggests a draw.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for the Hoops. There is an 11.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.3pc probability Rovers will score exactly two goals. There is a 42.3pc chance Limerick will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-3 draw. Likely? Not really! There is only a 0.9pc probability of such an occurrence. The main message to take is that the score prediction – indicates a draw.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Limerick 0, Shamrock Rovers 2 (11.1pc); (2) Limerick 1, Shamrock Rovers 2 (9.6pc); (3) Limerick 0, Shamrock Rovers 1 (9.4pc).

St Patrick’s Athletic (4) v Sligo Rovers (10)

None of the predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score predictions heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see St Pat’s losing at Richmond Park (7.45pm).

Two of them – Poisson and Rateform – indicate a win for the Saints. The score prediction heuristic suggests a draw.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for St Pat’s. There is a 12.3 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.8pc probability St Pat’s will score exactly two goals. There is a 45.7pc chance Sligo will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-2 draw. There is a 3.7pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) St Pat’s 2, Sligo 0 (12.3pc); (2) St Pat’s 1, Sligo 0 (11.1pc); (3) St Pat’s 2, Sligo 1 (9.6pc).

First Division promotion/relegation play-off first leg

UCD (3) v Finn Harps (2)

Two of the three predictive methods – Poisson and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for UCD at The UCD Bowl (7.45pm).

Rateform favours a win for Finn Harps.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for UCD. There is a 14.3 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 35.8pc probability UCD will score exactly one goal. There is a 39.9pc chance Finn Harps will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-1 win for UCD. There is an 8.2pc probability of such an occurrence.