What's gone wrong with Bulgaria?

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The Republic of Ireland faces a crucial week that could shape their World Cup destiny. Giovanni Trapatonni’s men are currently joint top of group eight, with Italy, on ten points apiece and two good results against Bulgaria and Italy could see us take a big step closer to South Africa. First up for Ireland is Saturday’s clash with Bulgaria at Croke Park before the boys in green travel to Bari to take on World Champions Italy.

Although there is only one place separating Ireland and Bulgaria in the FIFA rankings the sides are currently miles apart in Group Eight. While Ireland have made a steady, albeit unimpressive start, in the group Bulgaria have been in freefall. A win over the Bulgarians will see Ireland open up a ten point gap over Stanimir Stoilov's side and surely guarantee us a play-off place at the least. Defeat for Bulgaria will surely see them missing out on qualification for a major international tournament for the third time in a row. The Lions are yet to win in the group after being held by Montenegro, Italy and Georgia and the golden generation of USA ’94 is fast becoming a distant memory. Paul Moore looks at three reasons why Irish fans should be quietly confident ahead of the game.

1. Dimitar Berbatov and the other injuries

Regardless of whether you like or dislike the striker's work ethic there is no denying the moody striker's talent. The Manchester United striker was ruled out of the match, although conspiracy theorists think he still has a chance of starting, after suffering an ankle injury during the champions’ 2-0 defeat at Craven Cottage.
Berbatov is the Bulgarian captain and has an incredible strike rate at international football, 41 goals in 67 appearances, although the mercurial talent hasn’t scored in the qualifying campaign so far. The £30.75 million striker has been voted Bulgarian Footballer of the Year in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008. He is their talisman and on his day can unlock any defence in the world. To compound matters Stoliov is also without Manchester City duo Martin Petrov and Valeri Bojinov, as well as Leicester City defender Alexandar Tunchev.

2. New manager and internal problems

Plamen Markov was in charge of the national team at the start of this qualification campaign but was sacked after three draws from their opening three qualifiers. The final nail in his coffin was the humiliating 6-1 loss against Serbia in a friendly in November.
Markov came out and said that "Bulgarian football doesn't have the potential that we want to have.” A change was needed and came in the shape of Stanimir Stoilov, who began his second spell with the Lions in January. His first game was a drab one-one draw with Switzerland as critics have questioned whether or not he is the right man to bring a change about in the fortunes of the national side.
It also seems that Bulgarian soccer authorities burned their bridges with some of the players as they said the blame for the poor run of results was the fault of the players, not Markov. Bulgarian Football Union's Vice President Yordan Lechkov was especially critical of Manchester United’s Dimitar Berbatov.
"It's not funny to see Berbatov running 2,000m during the whole match against Italy," he said, in the wake of the 0–0 home draw with Italy last October. The domestic games image was also tarnished after champions CSKA Sofia's president Alexandar Tomov was charged with embezzlement and document fraud in February.

3. That Serbia defeat and performances so far

Any defeat by a lower ranked nation would hurt. A 6-1 thrashing by your neighbours, who only established themselves as an independent footballing nation in June 2006, is enough to give even the most optimistic fan serious doubts. To give you some perspective, remember Serbia held Ireland to a draw in Croke Park, but their demolition of Bulgaria cost the manager his job and did serious damage to the image of the national team around the world.
What’s worse is that the team in the 6-1 game wasn’t experimental or composed mostly of debutants or inexperienced players. Aston Villa’s Stilian Petrov and Berbatov were starters. Ex-Aston Villa flop Savo Milosevic got two goals that evening in Belgrade and missed two penalties also. The popular opinion is that Bulgaria were extremely lucky to escape from Montenegro and Georgia with draws. They needed a last minute equaliser by Georgiev against Montenegro and were reliant on a string of world class saves by Georgi Petkov in Tiblisi.