LOI predictions: Shamrock Rovers v Dundalk

Shamrock Rovers (3) v Dundalk (1)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Dundalk in the ‘live’ televised match at Tallaght Stadium (RTE 2, 7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 14.8 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.2pc probability Dundalk will score exactly one goal. There is a 40.7pc chance Shamrock Rovers will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-1 win for Dundalk. There is a 7.9pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 21.5pc chance Dundalk will score precisely two goals. There is a 36.6pc probability Shamrock Rovers will score exactly one.

As our exclusive betting matrix (immediately below) shows, our estimation of the ‘true’ or ‘fair’ odds for a Dundalk win is 2.36 (implied probability 42pc). Our estimation of the ‘true’ or ‘fair’ odds for a Shamrock Rovers win is 3.60 (implied probability 28pc). Our estimation of the ‘true’ or ‘fair’ odds for a draw is 3.37 (implied probability 30pc).

The Hoops’ last six league outings have all ended in two or fewer goals. Five of Dundalk’s last six have ended in three or more goals. The one exception was their 2-0 win over Rovers when the sides last met, at Oriel Park on Tuesday September 1.

A win at Tallaght Stadium would see Dundalk retain their league title. Only a Cork City victory against Drogheda United at United Park (7.45pm) and defeat for Dundalk, who are unbeaten on their travels this season, will keep John Caulfield’s men in with a chance of overtaking the Lilywhites.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Shamrock Rovers 0, Dundalk 1 (14.8pc); (2) Shamrock Rovers 1, Dundalk 1 (13.3pc); (3) Shamrock Rovers 0, Dundalk 0 (12.5pc).