League of Ireland Predictions – Galway United -v- Sligo Rovers

None of the predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see Sligo losing at Eamonn Deacy Park in the Airtricity League Premier Division on Friday (7.45pm).

Two of the three predictive methods – Rateform and the score prediction heuristic – favour a win for Sligo. Poisson indicates a draw.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 10.8 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 32pc probability Galway will score precisely one goal. There is a 33.9pc chance Sligo will score exactly one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 4-2 win for Sligo, which seems unlikely. There is just a 1.1pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 4.4pc chance Sligo will score exactly four goals. There is a 26pc probability Galway will score precisely two. Don’t get hung up on the predicted scoreline. The main message to take is that the score prediction heuristic, like Rateform, also sees Sligo winning.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Galway 1, Sligo 1 (10.8pc); (2) Galway 2, Sligo 1 (8.8pc); (3) Galway 1, Sligo 2 (7.9pc).