League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 29 - Saturday

Bray Wanderers (6) v Limerick FC (12)

None of the three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see Bray losing at home to Limerick FC at the Carlisle Grounds today (5.45pm).

Poisson and Rateform both suggest a draw, while the score prediction heuristic indicates a 3-2 win for Bray. However, 13 of the Seagulls last 14 games in all competitions have produced two or fewer goals.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 13 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 35.6pc probability Bray will score exactly one goal. There is a 36.4pc chance Limerick will score precisely one.

There is a 2pc probability of a 3-2 win for Bray, which is what the score prediction suggests.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Bray 1, Limerick 1 (13pc); (2) Bray 1, Limerick 0 (11.2pc); (3) Bray 0, Limerick 1 (10.1pc).

Cobh Ramblers (5) v Finn Harps (2)

A win for Cobh at St Colman’s Park today (7.45pm) will see Wexford Youths promoted to the Premier Division.

Will that happen?

Not according to the three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends.

Even if Cobh fail to win, it will only be delaying the inevitable. Wexford Youths, whose final game of their three remaining matches of the campaign is away to Finn Harps on Saturday October 17, are a Premier Division side in all but name. They are going up.

Poisson and Rateform both suggest a win for Finn Harps, while the score prediction heuristic indicates a draw.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Finn Harps. There is a 16.5 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 47.3pc probability Cobh will get no goals. There is a 34.8pc chance Finn Harps will score exactly one.

The score prediction heuristic sees the game ending in a 2-2 draw. There is a 3.2pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Cobh 0, Finn Harps 1 (16.5pc); (2) Cobh 1, Finn Harps 1 (12.3pc); (3) Cobh 0, Finn Harps 0 (12pc).