League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 27 - Saturday

Longford Town (8) v Bray Wanderers (6)    

Two of the three predictive methods – Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Bray at the City Calling Stadium (7.30pm). Poisson indicates a victory for Longford.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely occurrence is a 1-0 win for Longford. There is a 16.2 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.5pc probability Longford will score precisely one goal. There is a 44.3pc chance Bray will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-0 win for Bray. There is a 4.8pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Longford 1, Bray 0 (16.2pc); (2) Longford 0, Bray 0 (14.5pc); (3) Longford 1, Bray 1 (13.2pc).

VERDICT: Inconclusive. Poisson favours Longford, while Rateform and the score prediction heuristic suggest a win for Bray.

Sligo Rovers (11) v Shamrock Rovers (3)   

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Shamrock Rovers at the Showgrounds (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely occurrence is a 1-0 win for Shamrock Rovers. There is a 16.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 29.2pc probability Shamrock Rovers will score precisely one goal. There is a 57.9pc chance Sligo will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a one-goal win for Shamrock Rovers, but by 2-1. There is an 8.5pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Sligo 0, Shamrock Rovers 1 (16.9pc); (2) Sligo 0, Shamrock Rovers 2 (15.6pc); (3) Sligo 0, Shamrock Rovers 3 (9.6pc).

VERDICT: Unanimous, a win for Shamrock Rovers, possibly to nil.

Cobh Ramblers (5) v Athlone Town (6)

Two of the three predictive methods – Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Cobh at St Colman’s Park (7.45pm). Poisson indicates a draw.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely occurrence is a 1-1 draw. There is a 13 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.2pc probability Cobh will score exactly one goal. There is a 36pc chance Athlone will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 win for Cobh. There is a 10.6pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Cobh 1, Athlone 1 (13pc); (2) Cobh 0, Athlone 1 (11pc); (3) Cobh 1, Athlone 0 (10.6pc).

VERDICT: None of the predictive methods see Cobh losing.