League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 26

Dundalk (1) v St Patrick's Athletic (3)   

Two of the three predictive methods – Poisson and Rateform – favour a win for Dundalk at Oriel Park. The score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, indicates a win for St Pat’s at Oriel Park (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely occurrence is a 1-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 17.2 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.1pc probability Dundalk will score exactly one goal. There is a 47.8pc chance St Pat’s will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-1 win for St Pat’s. There is a 4.7pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 13pc chance St Pat’s will score precisely two goals.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Dundalk 1, St Pat’s 0 (17.2pc); (2) Dundalk 0, St Pat’s 0 (14.2pc); (3) Dundalk 1, St Pat’s 1 (12.7pc); (4&5) Dundalk 0, St Pat’s 1 and Dundalk 2, St Pat’s 0 (both 10.5pc).

Shamrock Rovers (4) v Cork City (2)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a draw at Tallaght Stadium.

The match is ‘live’ on RTE 2 at 7.05pm.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely occurrence is a 0-0 draw. There is an 18.6pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 46 per cent probability Shamrock Rovers will get no goals. There is a 40pc chance Cork will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-1 or borderline 2-2 draw. There is a 13.1pc probability of the game ending in a 1-1 draw. There is a 35.7pc chance Shamrock Rovers will score exactly one goal. There is a 36.6pc probability Cork will score precisely one goal. There is a 2.3pc chance of the game ending in a 2-2 draw. There is a 13.9pc probability Shamrock Rovers will score exactly two goals. There is a 16.6pc chance Cork will score precisely two goals.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Shamrock Rovers 0, Cork 0 (18.6pc); (2) Shamrock Rovers 0, Cork 1 (16.8pc); (3) Shamrock Rovers 1, Cork 0 (14.4pc); (4) Shamrock Rovers 1, Cork City 1 (13.1pc); (5) Shamrock Rovers 0, Cork 2 (7.6pc).