League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 25

Bohemians (5) v Galway United (10)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-terms trends – favour a win for Bohemians at Dalymount Park (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-1 win for Bohemians. There is a 9.4 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.1 per cent probability Bohemians will score exactly two goals. There is a 36pc chance Galway will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests a 2-1 win for Bohemians.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Bohemians 2, Galway 1 (9.4pc); (2) Bohemians 1, Galway 1 (7.8pc); (3) Bohemians 2, Galway 0 (7.7pc); (4) Bohemians 3, Galway 1 (7.5pc); (5) Bohemians 1, Galway 0 (6.4pc).

Cork City (2) v Limerick FC (12)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-terms trends – favour a win for Cork at Turner’s Cross (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 3-0 win for Cork. There is a 14.3 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 20.4pc probability Cork will score precisely three goals. There is a 69.8pc chance Limerick will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 6-0 win for Cork. Surely not?!

Top five Poisson results: (1) Cork 3, Limerick 0 (14.3pc); (2) Cork 4, Limerick 0 (13.6pc); (3) Cork 2, Limerick 0 (11.3pc); (4) Cork 5, Limerick 0 (10.3pc); (5) Cork 1, Limerick 0 (5.9pc).

Derry City (8) v Dundalk (1)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-terms trends – favour a win for Dundalk at the Brandywell (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Dundalk are almost equally likely occurrences. There is a 16.9 per cent chance of a 1-0 victory for Dundalk. There is a 16.7pc probability of a 2-0 win for the Premier Division leaders. There is a 27.4pc chance Dundalk will score exactly one goal. There is a 27.1pc probability Dundalk will score precisely two. There is a 61.8pc chance Derry will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests a 2-0 victory for Dundalk.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Derry 0, Dundalk 1 (16.9pc); (2) Derry 0, Dundalk 2 (16.7pc); (3) Derry 0, Dundalk 3 (11pc); (4) Derry 0, Dundalk 0 (8.6pc); (5) Derry 1, Dundalk 2 (8.1pc).

Drogheda United (9) v Sligo Rovers (11)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-terms trends – effectively favour a win for Drogheda at United Park (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, a 1-1 draw or 1-0 win to Drogheda are almost equally likely occurrences. There is a 12.5 per cent chance of the game ending in a 1-1 draw. There is a 34.1pc probability Drogheda will score exactly one goal. There is a 36.8pc chance Sligo will score precisely one. There is a 12.3pc probability of a 1-0 win for Drogheda. There is a 36.1pc probability Sligo will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests a 1-0 victory for Drogheda, or borderline 2-0 win for Johnny McDonnell’s side. There is an 8.9pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 24.6pc probability Drogheda will score exactly two goals.

Top five Poisson results: Drogheda 1, Sligo 1 (12.5pc); (2) Drogheda 1, Sligo 0 (12.3pc); (3) Drogheda 2, Sligo 0 (8.9pc); (4) Drogheda 0, Sligo 1 (8.7pc); (5) Drogheda 0, Sligo 0 (8.5pc).

Longford Town (7) v Shamrock Rovers (4)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-terms trends – favour a win for Shamrock Rovers at City Calling Stadium (8pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win to Shamrock Rovers. There is an 18.7 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 32.1pc probability Shamrock Rovers will score exactly one goal. There is a 58.2pc chance Longford will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also indicates a 1-0 win for Shamrock Rovers.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Longford 0, Shamrock Rovers 1 (18.7pc); (2) Longford 0, Shamrock Rovers 2 (15.1pc); (3) Longford 0, Shamrock Rovers 0 (11.5pc); (4&5) Longford 0, Shamrock Rovers 3 and Longford 1, Shamrock Rovers 2 (both 8.2pc).

St Patrick's Athletic (3) v Bray Wanderers (6)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-terms trends – favour a win for St Pat’s at Richmond Park (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for St Pat’s. There is a 19 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.9pc probability St Pat’s will score exactly two goals. There is a 70.6pc chance Bray will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-0 win for St Pat’s. There is a 13.6pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 19.3pc chance St Pat’s will score precisely three goals.

Top five Poisson results: (1) St Pat’s 2, Bray 0 (19pc); (2) St Pat’s 1, Bray 0 (17.7pc); (3) St Pat’s 3, Bray 0 (13.6pc); (4) St Pat’s 0, Bray 0 (8.2pc); (5) St Pat’s 4, Bray 0 (7.3pc).

FIRST DIVISION

Athlone Town (6) v Waterford United (8)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-terms trends – favour a win for Athlone at Athlone Town Stadium (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 victory for Athlone. There is a 15.4 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 29.4pc probability Athlone will score exactly one goal. There is a 52.5pc chance Waterford will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-2 win for Athlone. There is a 1.8pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 16.3pc chance Athlone will score precisely three goals. There is a 10.9pc probability Waterford will get exactly two.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Athlone 1, Waterford 0 (15.4pc); (2) Athlone 2, Waterford 0 (14.1pc); (3) Athlone 1, Waterford 1 (10pc); (4) Athlone 2, Waterford 1 (9.1pc); (5) Athlone 3, Waterford 0 (8.6pc).

Finn Harps (2) v Shelbourne (4)

Two of the three predictive methods – Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-terms trends – favour a draw. However, Poisson indicates a win for Finn Harps at Finn Park, Ballybofey (8pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Finn Harps. There is a 14.4 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 33.9pc probability Finn Harps will score exactly one goal. There is a 42.4pc chance Shelbourne will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 0-0 draw. There is a 9.9pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 23.2pc chance Finn Harps will get no goals. There is a 42.4pc probability Shelbourne will get no goals.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Finn Harps 1, Shelbourne 0 (14.4pc); (2) Finn Harps 1, Shelbourne 1 (12.3pc); (3) Finn Harps 2, Shelbourne 0 (10.5pc); (4) Finn Harps 2, Shelbourne 1 (9pc); (5) Finn Harps 0, Shelbourne 1 (8.5pc).

UCD (3) v Cobh Ramblers (5)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-terms trends – favour a win for UCD at the UCD Bowl (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 victory for UCD. There is a 13.8 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 25.7pc probability UCD will score exactly two goals. There is a 53.8pc chance Cobh will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 4-2 win for UCD. Like Poisson, it too is indicating a victory for the Students by a two-goal margin. There is a 1.4pc probability of the game ending in a 4-2 win for UCD. There is a 13.3pc chance of UCD scoring precisely four goals. There is a 10.3pc probability of Cobh scoring exactly two.

Top five Poisson results: (1) UCD 2, Cobh 0 (13.8pc); (2) UCD 3, Cobh 0 (11.5pc); (3) UCD 1, Cobh 0 (11.1pc); (4) UCD 2, Cobh 1 (8.6pc); (5) UCD 4, Cobh 0 (7.2pc).

Wexford Youths (1) v Cabinteely (7)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-terms trends – favour a win for Wexford Youths at Ferrycarrig Park (8pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 3-0 win for Wexford Youths. There is a 12.4 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 22pc probability Wexford Youths will score exactly three goals. There is a 56.2pc chance Cabinteely will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests a 3-0 win for Wexford Youths.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Wexford Youths 3, Cabinteely 0 (12.4pc); (2); Wexford Youths 2, Cabinteely 0 (11.2pc); (3) Wexford Youths 4, Cabinteely 0 (10.3pc); (4) Wexford Youths 3, Cabinteely 1 (7.1pc); (5) Wexford Youths 5, Cabinteely 0 (6.8pc).