League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 24 - Saturday

Bray Wanderers (7) v Drogheda United (9)  

None of the three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, see Bray losing at the Carlisle Grounds (5.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely occurrence is a 0-0 draw. There is a 16.4 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 42.7pc probability Bray will get no goals. There is a 38.4pc chance Drogheda will get no goals.

Rateform suggests a home win or borderline draw. The score prediction heuristic favours a home victory by a one-goal winning margin.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Bray 0, Drogheda 0 (16.4pc); (2) Bray 0, Drogheda 1 (15.7pc); (3) Bray 1, Drogheda 0 (14pc); (4) Bray 1, Drogheda 1 (13.4pc); (5) Bray 0, Drogheda 2 (7.5pc).

Limerick FC (12) v Bohemians (5)

Two of the three predictive methods – Poisson and Rateform – favour a win for Bohemians at the Markets Fields (6.30pm).

However, the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, suggests a victory for Limerick by a one-goal winning margin.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely occurrence is a 2-0 win for Bohemians. There is an 11 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 27pc probability Bohemians will score exactly two goals. There is a 40.9pc chance Limerick will get no goals.

Verdict: Given the uncertainty of outcome (two of the three predictive methods favour Bohemians, the other Limerick), this match is probably best avoided.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Limerick 0, Bohemians 2 (11pc); (2) Limerick 0, Bohemians 1 (10.5pc); (3) Limerick 1, Bohemians 2 (9.9pc); (4) Limerick 1, Bohemians 1 (9.4pc); (5) Limerick 0, Bohemians 3 (7.7pc).

Sligo Rovers (11) v Cork City (2)   

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, favour a win for Cork at the Showgrounds (7.45pm) as Micky Adams takes charge of Sligo for the first time.

A win for Cork would see the Leesiders move to within four points of leaders and defending champions Dundalk in the Airtricity League Premier Division title race.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely occurrence is a 2-0 win for Cork. There is a 17.4 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.4pc probability Cork will score exactly two goals. There is a 65.9pc chance that Sligo will get no goals.

The score prediction suggests a 4-1 win for Cork. There is a 3.3pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 12pc chance Cork will score precisely four goals. There is a 27.5pc probability Sligo will score exactly one.

Verdict: Unanimous, a Cork win.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Sligo 0, Cork 2 (17.4pc); (2) Sligo 0, Cork 1 (14.9pc); (3) Sligo 0, Cork 3 (13.5pc); (4) Sligo 0, Cork 4 (7.9pc); (5) Sligo 1, Cork 2 (7.3pc).

First Division

Cobh Ramblers (5) v Shelbourne (4)

Two of the three predictive methods – Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Shelbourne at St Colman’s Park (7.45pm).

Poisson suggests the game will end in a draw.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely occurrence according to the goal distribution data is a 1-1 draw. There is a 12.9 per cent chance of such an outcome. There is a 37.7pc probability Cobh will score exactly one goal. There is a 35.1pc chance Shelbourne will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic indicates the possibility of a Shelbourne win to nil.

Verdict: Shelbourne appear likely to extend their six-match unbeaten run in the league (four wins and two draws), although a draw is a possibility (based on Poisson).

Top five Poisson results: (1) Cobh 1, Shelbourne 1 (12.9pc); (2) Cobh 0, Shelbourne 1 (12.2pc); (3) Cobh 1, Shelbourne 1 (9.6pc); (4) Cobh 0, Shelbourne 0 (9.1pc); (5) Cobh 1, Shelbourne 2 (8.6pc).