League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 24

Shamrock Rovers (4) v St Patrick's Athletic (3)

The three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – suggest Shamrock Rovers will not lose at Tallaght Stadium (8pm; ‘live’ Setanta Ireland).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, there is effectively an equal likelihood of either a 1-0 win for Shamrock Rovers or a 0-0 draw. There is a 17.6 per cent chance of a 1-0 win for Rovers. There is a 17.3pc probability of the game ending in a goalless draw. There is a 36.8pc probability the Hoops will score exactly one goal. There is a 36pc chance they will get no goals. There is a 48pc probability St Pat’s will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests victory for Shamrock Rovers by a one-goal winning margin.

Rateform indicates a home win or borderline draw.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Shamrock Rovers 1, St Pat’s 0 (17.6pc); (2) Shamrock Rovers 0, St Pat’s 0 (17.3pc); (3) Shamrock Rovers 1, St Pat’s 1 (13pc); (4) Shamrock Rovers 0, St Pat’s 1 (12.7pc); (5) Shamrock Rovers 2, St Pat’s 0 (9pc).

Dundalk (1) v Longford Town (6)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Dundalk at Oriel Park (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 3-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 14.3 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 22.4pc probability Dundalk will score exactly three goals. There is a 64pc chance Longford will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests Dundalk are likely to win to nil.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Dundalk 3, Longford 0 (14.3pc); (2) Dundalk 2, Longford 0 (13.8pc); (3) Dundalk 4, Longford 0 (11.1pc); (4) Dundalk 1, Longford 0 (8.9pc); (5) Dundalk 5, Longford 0 (6.9pc).

Galway United (8) v Derry City (10)

The three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – suggest Galway will not lose at Eamonn Deacy Park (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, there is an almost equal likelihood of either a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 win for Galway. There is an 11.9 per cent chance of the game ending in a 1-1 draw. There is an 11.5pc probability of a 1-0 win for Galway. There is a 32.5pc chance Galway will score exactly one goal. There is a 36.8pc probability Derry will score precisely one. There is a 35.5pc chance Derry will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests victory for Galway by a one-goal winning margin.

Rateform indicates a home win or borderline draw.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Galway 1, Derry 1 (11.9pc); (2) Galway 1, Derry 0 (11.5pc); (3) Galway 2, Derry 1 (9.5pc); (4) Galway 2, Derry 0 (9.1pc); (5) Galway 0, Derry 1 (7.5pc).

First Division

Athlone Town (6) v Cabinteely (7)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Athlone at Athlone Town Stadium (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Alan Mathews’ side. There is a 14 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 28.3pc probability Athlone will score exactly one goal. There is a 49.4pc chance Cabinteely will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests victory for Athlone by a one-goal winning margin.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Athlone 1, Cabinteely 0 (14pc); (2) Athlone 2, Cabinteely 0 (13.3pc); (3) Athlone 1, Cabinteely 1 (9.9pc); (4) Athlone 2, Cabinteely 1 (9.4pc); (5) Athlone 3, Cabinteely 0 (8.5pc).

UCD (4) v Waterford United (8)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for UCD at UCD Bowl (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for UCD. There is a 16.6 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 25.1pc probability UCD will score exactly two goals. There is a 66.1pc chance Waterford will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests UCD are likely to win to nil.

Top five Poisson results: (1) UCD 2, Waterford 0 (16.6pc); (2) UCD 3, Waterford 0 (14.4pc); (3) UCD 1, Waterford 0 (12.8pc); (4) UCD 4, Waterford 0 (9.4pc); (5) UCD 2, Waterford 1 (6.9pc).

Wexford Youths (2) v Finn Harps (1)

The three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – suggest Wexford Youths will not lose at Ferrycarrig Park (8pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 12.2 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 33.3pc probability Wexford Youths will score exactly one goal. There is a 36.5pc chance Finn Harps will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests victory for Wexford Youths by a one-goal winning margin.

Rateform indicates a home win or borderline draw.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Wexford Youths 1, Finn Harps 1 (12.2pc); (2) Wexford Youths 1, Finn Harps 0 (10.9pc); (3) Wexford Youths 2, Finn Harps 1 (9.2pc); (4) Wexford Youths 2, Finn Harps 0 (9.2pc); (5) Wexford Youths 2, Finn Harps 0 (8.2pc).