League of Ireland Predictions - Gameweek 23

Cork City v Bohemians

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Cork City against Bohemians in the Airtricity League Premier Division at Turner’s Cross.

The match is ‘live’ on Setanta Ireland (8pm GMT).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for title contenders Cork, who, it should be noted, have yet to beat a fellow top-five side this season in the league. There is a 19 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 32.1pc probability Cork will score precisely one goal. There is a 59.3pc chance Bohemians will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-1 win for the Leesiders, who are six points adrift of Premier Division leaders and defending champion Dundalk as things stand. There is a 4.3pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 14pc chance Cork will score exactly three goals. There is a 31pc probability Bohemians will score precisely one goal.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1) Cork 1, Bohemians 0 (19pc); (2) Cork 2, Bohemians 0 (15.4pc); (3) Cork 0, Bohemians 0 (11.8pc); (4) Cork 3, Bohemians 0 (8.3pc); (5) Cork 2, Bohemians 1 (8pc).

Bray Wanderers v Dundalk

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Dundalk against Bray Wanderers in the Airtricity League Premier Division at the Carlisle Grounds (7.45pm GMT).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 16.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 25.7pc probability Dundalk will score precisely two goals. There is a 65.9pc chance Bray will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 14.1pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 21.3pc chance Dundalk will score exactly three goals.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1) Bray 0, Dundalk 2 (16.9pc); (2) Bray 0, Dundalk 3 (14.1pc); (3) Bray 1, Dundalk 2 (13.6pc); (4) Bray 0, Dundalk 4 (8.7pc); (5) Bray 1, Dundalk 2 (7.1pc).

Derry City v Longford Town

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Longford Town against Derry City in the Airtricity League Premier Division at the Brandywell (7.45pm GMT).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Longford. There is a 15.5 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.8pc probability Longford will score precisely one goal. There is a 42.2pc chance Derry will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-1 win for Longford. There is a 7pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 19.2pc chance Longford will score exactly two goals. There is a 36.4pc probability Derry will score precisely one.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1) Derry 0, Longford 1 (15.5pc); (2) Derry 0, Longford 0 (14.8pc); (3) Derry 1, Longford 1 (13.4pc); (4) Derry 1, Longford 0 (12.8pc); (5) Derry 0, Longford 2 (8.1pc).

Drogheda United v Shamrock Rovers

Interestingly, while two of the three predictive methods – Poisson and Rateform – favour a win for Shamrock Rovers against Drogheda United in the Airtricity League Premier Division at United Park (7.45pm GMT), the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, does not.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Shamrock Rovers. There is a 17.4 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 30pc probability Shamrock Rovers will score precisely one goal. There is a 58.1pc chance Drogheda will get no goals.

However, the score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 win for Drogheda. There is a 5.3pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 31.5pc chance Drogheda will score exactly one goal.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1) Drogheda 0, Shamrock Rovers 1 (17.4pc); (2) Drogheda 0, Shamrock Rovers 2 (15.5pc); (3) Drogheda 0, Shamrock Rovers 0 (9.8pc); (4) Drogheda 1, Shamrock Rovers 1 (9.5pc); (5) Drogheda 0, Shamrock Rovers 3 (9.2pc).

St Patrick's Athletic v Galway United

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for St Patrick's Athletic against Galway United in the Airtricity League Premier Division at Richmond Park (7.45pm GMT).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for St Pat’s. There is an 11.7 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 23.9pc probability St Pat’s will score precisely two goals. There is a 49pc chance Galway will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 or 2-1 win for St Pat’s. There is an equally likely of the game either ending 1-0 or 2-1 in St Pat’s favour. There is a 34.9pc chance Galway will score exactly one goal.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1) St Pat’s 2, Galway 0 (11.7pc); (2) St Pat’s 3, Galway 0 (10.9pc); (3) St Pat’s 1, Galway 0 (8.4pc) & St Pat’s 2, Galway 1 (both 8.4pc); (5) St Pat’s 3, Galway 1 (7.8pc).

Cabinteely v UCD

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for UCD against Cabinteely in the Airtricity League First Division at Stradbrook (7.45pm GMT).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for UCD. There is a 16.3 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.8pc probability UCD will score precisely two goals. There is a 60.7pc chance Cabinteely will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 win for UCD. There is a 14.8pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 24.5pc chance UCD will score exactly one goal.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1) Cabinteely 0, UCD 2 (16.3pc); (2) Cabinteely 1, UCD 2 (14.8pc); (3) Cabinteely 0, UCD 3 (11.9pc); (4) Cabinteely 1, UCD 2 (8.1pc); (5) Cabinteely 1, UCD 1 (7.4pc).

Finn Harps v Athlone Town

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Finn Harps against Athlone Town in the Airtricity League First Division at Finn Park (8pm GMT).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Finn Harps. There is a 14.7 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 31.6pc probability Finn Harps will score precisely one goal. There is a 46.4pc chance Athlone will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests 1-0 win for Finn Harps, or borderline 2-1 home victory. There is a 9.3pc probability of the game ending in a 2-1 win for Finn Harps. There is a 26.2pc chance Finn Harps will score exactly two goals. There is a 35.6pc probability Athlone will score precisely one.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1) Finn Harps 1, Athlone 0 (14.7pc); (2) Finn Harps 2, Athlone 0 (12.1pc); (3) Finn Harps 1, Athlone 1 (11.3pc); (4) Finn Harps 2, Athlone 1 (9.3pc); (5) Finn Harps 0, Athlone 1 (6.8pc).

Shelbourne v Wexford Youths

The three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – are inconclusive for Shelbourne against Wexford Youths in the Airtricity League First Division at Tolka Park (7.45pm GMT).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, there is an almost equal likelihood of either a 1-1 draw or 2-1 win for Wexford Youths. There is a 9.7 per cent chance of a 1-1 draw. There is a 9.6pc probability of a 2-1 win for Wexford Youths. There is a 35.4pc chance Shelbourne will score precisely one goal. There is a 27.3pc probability Wexford Youths will score exactly one. There is a 27.1pc chance Wexford Youths will score precisely two.

However, the score prediction heuristic suggests a 4-2 win for Shelbourne, or borderline 3-2 home victory. There is a 0.9pc probability of a 4-2 win for Shelbourne. There is a 2.7pc chance of a 3-2 win for Shelbourne. There is a 10pc chance Shelbourne will score exactly three goals. There is a 3.2pc probability Shelbourne will score precisely four. There is a 27.1pc chance Wexford Youths will score exactly two.

Regarding Rateform, as the home team, Shelbourne have a -55.1 point differential compared to Wexford Youths. However, of seven fixtures in which the home team has had a similar negative differential this season, four have resulted in home wins, two in draws and just one in an away victory.

Given the uncertainty of outcome, this game is best avoided in terms of match betting.

Top five Poisson results: (1) Shelbourne 1, Wexford Youths 1 (9.7pc); (2) Shelbourne 1, Wexford Youths 2 (9.6pc); (3) Shelbourne 0, Wexford Youths 1 & Shelbourne 0, Wexford Youths 2 (both 7.4pc); (5) Shelbourne 2, Wexford Youths 1 & Shelbourne 1, Wexford Youths 3 (both 6.3pc).

Waterford United v Cobh Ramblers

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – effectively favour a win for Waterford United against Cobh Ramblers in the Airtricity League First Division at the RSC (7.45pm GMT).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, there is an equal likelihood of either a 1-0 for Cobh or a 1-1 draw. There is a 13.2 per cent chance of such an occurrence in both instances. There is a 36pc probability Cobh will score precisely one goal. There is a 36.8pc probability Waterford will get no goals. There is an equally likely 36.8pc chance Waterford will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-1 win for Cobh. There is an 8.1pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 22.1pc chance Cobh will score exactly two goals. There is a 36.8pc probability Waterford will score precisely one.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1) Waterford 0, Cobh 1 & Waterford 1 Cobh 1 (both 13.2pc); (3) Waterford 0, Cobh 0 & Waterford 1, Cobh 0 (both 10.7pc); (5) Waterford 0, Cobh 2 & Waterford 1, Cobh 2 (both 8.1pc).