League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 22 - Super Sunday

Dundalk v Cork City

Two of the three predictive methods – Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Dundalk against Cork City in the Airtricity League Premier Division at Oriel Park today (6pm GMT). Poisson, meanwhile, suggests an almost equal likelihood of a 0-0 draw or 1-0 win for Dundalk.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 0-0 draw – just! There is a 16.7 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 37.4pc probability Dundalk will get no goals. There is a 44.8pc chance Cork will get no goals.

By the same token, there is an almost equally likelihood of a 1-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 16.5pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 36.7pc chance Dundalk will score precisely one goal.

For what it’s worth, the score prediction heuristic goes 4-2 to Dundalk. There is only a 0.2pc probability of such an occurrence. It does not very likely, does it?! The main message to take is that the score prediction heuristic, like Rateform, also favours a home win for Dundalk.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1) Dundalk 0, Cork 0 (16.7pc); (2) Dundalk 1 Cork 0 (16.5pc); (3) Dundalk 0, Cork 1 (13.4pc); (4) Dundalk 1, Cork 1 (13.2pc); (5) Dundalk 2, Cork 0 (8.1pc).

Shamrock Rovers v Limerick FC

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Shamrock Rovers against Limerick in the Airtricity League Premier Division at Tallaght today (4pm GMT).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Shamrock Rovers. There is a 17.2 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 24.1pc probability Shamrock Rovers will score exactly two goals. There is a 71.9pc chance Limerick will get no goals.

For what it’s worth, the score prediction heuristic goes 5-0 to Shamrock Rovers. A bit far-fetched? We’ll see! There is a 6.1pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1) Shamrock Rovers 2, Limerick 0 (17.3pc); (2) Shamrock Rovers 3, Limerick 0 (16pc); (3) Shamrock Rovers 1, Limerick 0 (12.5pc); (4) Shamrock Rovers 4, Limerick 0 (11pc); (5) Shamrock Rovers 2, Limerick 1 (5.7pc).

UCD v Finn Harps

Both predictive methods considered for this Airtricity League First Division fixture – Poisson and the score prediction heuristic – favour a win for UCD against Finn Harps at the UCD Bowl (7pm GMT).

Rateform is not considered as Finn Harps have played two games more than UCD owing to the Students’ recent European commitments. If considered, it suggests an away win for Finn Harps.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for UCD. There is a 16.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.4pc probability UCD will score precisely one goal. There is a 44.2pc chance Finn Harps will get no goals.

For what it’s worth, the score prediction heuristic goes 5-2 to UCD. There is only a 0.1pc probability of such an occurrence. Again, like in Dundalk, it does not appear very likely, does it?! The main message to take is that the score prediction heuristic, like Poisson, also favours a home win for UCD.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1) UCD 1, Finn Harps 0 (16.1pc); (2) UCD 0, Finn Harps 0 (13.9pc); (3) UCD 1, Finn Harps 1 (13.1pc); (4) UCD 0, Finn Harps 1 (11.3pc); (5) UCD 2, Finn Harps 0 (9.3pc).