League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 22

Sligo Rovers v St Patrick's Athletic

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for St Patrick's Athletic against Sligo Rovers in the Airtricity League Premier Division at the Showgrounds.

The match is ‘live’ on Setanta Ireland (8pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for St Pat’s. There is a 13.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence. Almost equally likely is a 1-0 victory for the Saints. There is a 13.6pc probability of such an occurrence.

There is a 26.4pc chance St Pat’s will score precisely one goal. There is a 27.1pc probability they will score exactly two. There is a 51.3pc chance Sligo will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests a 2-0 win for St Pat’s.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1) Sligo 0 St Pat’s 2 (13.9pc); (2) Sligo 0 St Pat’s 1 (13.6pc); Sligo 0 St Pat’s 3 (9.5pc); Sligo 1 St Pat’s 2 (9.3pc); Sligo 1 St Pat’s 1 (9pc).

Bohemians v Derry City

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Bohemians against Derry City in the Airtricity League Premier Division at Dalymount Park.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Bohemians. There is a 22.3 per cent chance of such an occurrence.

There is a 34.6pc chance Bohemians will score precisely one goal. There is a 64.5pc probability Derry will get no goals.

The score prediction also suggests a 1-0 win for Bohemians.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1) Bohemians 1, Derry 0 (22.3pc); (2) Bohemians 0, Derry 0 (16.1pc); (3) Bohemians 2, Derry 0 (15.5pc); (4) Bohemians 1, Derry 1 (9.8pc); (5) Bohemians 0, Derry 1 (7pc).

Galway United v Bray Wanderers

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Galway United against Bray Wanderers in the Airtricity League Premier Division at Eamonn Deacy Park.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, there is an equal likelihood of either a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Galway. There is a 10.3 per cent chance associated with both outcomes.

There is an equally likely 27.1pc probability that Galway will score either one or two goals. There is a 37.9pc chance Bray will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests Galway will win 4-3. There is only a 0.5pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 9pc chance Galway will score precisely four goals. There is a 6pc probability Bray will score exactly three goals.

Top five Poisson outcomes: (1): Galway 1 Bray 0 & Galway 2 Bray 0 (10.3pc); (3) Galway 2 Bray 1 & Galway 1 Bray (10pc); (5) Galway 0 Bray 0 (5.1pc).

FIRST DIVISION

Athlone Town v Wexford Youths

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Wexford Youths against Athlone Town in the Airtricity League First Division at Lissywoollen.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Wexford Youths. There is a 10.4 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 27pc probability Wexford Youths will score precisely two goals. There is a 38.7pc chance Athlone will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 5-1 win for Wexford Youths. Surely not! There is a 1.5pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 4pc Wexford Youths will score exactly five goals. There is a 36.7pc probability Athlone will score precisely one.

Top-five Poisson outcomes: (1) Athlone 0 Wexford Youths 2 (10.4pc); (2) Athlone 0 Wexford Youths 1 (10pc); (3) Athlone 1 Wexford Youths 2 (9.9pc); (4) Athlone 1 Wexford Youths 1 (9.5pc); (5) Athlone 0 Wexford Youths 3 (7.3pc).

Waterford United v Shelbourne

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Shelbourne against Waterford United in the Airtricity League First Division at the RSC.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Shelbourne. There is a 14.4 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 31.6pc probability Shelbourne will score exactly one goal. There is a 45.4pc chance Waterford will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 4-1 win for Shelbourne. There is a 2.1pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 6pc chance Shelbourne will score precisely four goals. There is a 35.8pc probability Waterford will get exactly one goal.

Top-five Poisson outcomes: (1) Waterford 0 Shelbourne 1 (14.4pc); (2) Waterford 0 Shelbourne 2 (11.9pc); (3) Waterford 1 Shelbourne 1 (11.3pc); (4) Waterford 1 Shelbourne 2 (9.4pc); (5) Waterford 0 Shelbourne 0 (8.7pc).