League of Ireland Predictions - Gameweek 21

Bohemians v Sligo Rovers

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Bohemians in the ‘live’ televised game in the Airtricity League Premier Division on Setanta Ireland (8.05pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Bohemians. There is a 13.3 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 28.4pc probability the Gypsies will score precisely one goal. There is a 46.7pc chance Sligo will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic goes 3-0 to Bohemians. There is an 8pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 17.1pc chance Bohemians will score exactly three goals.

Top three Poisson outcomes: (1) Bohemians 1 Sligo 0 (13.3pc); (2) Bohemians 2 Sligo 0 (12.6pc); (3) Bohemians 1 Sligo 1 (10.1pc).

Derry City v Limerick FC

While both Poisson and Rateform favour a Derry win at the Brandywell, the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, suggests a draw on Foyleside.

Poisson goes 1-0 to Derry, who are on a 10-match winless run in the league. They have not been victorious since they beat Limerick 2-0 on Monday 20 April. As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, there is a 16.5pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 35.5pc probability Derry will score precisely one goal. There is a 46.7pc chance Limerick will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic indicates a 0-0 draw. There is a 12.8pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 27.4pc chance Derry will get no goals.

Top three Poisson outcomes: (1) Derry 1 Limerick 0 (16.5pc); (2) Derry 0 Limerick 0 (12.8pc); (3) Derry 1 Limerick 1 (12.6pc).

Drogheda United v St Patrick’s Athletic

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for St Pat’s.

Both Poisson and the score prediction heuristic suggest a one-goal victory for the Saints.

Poisson goes 1-0 St Pat’s. As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, there is a 15pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 30.9pc chance St Pat’s will score precisely one goal. There is a 48.7pc probability Drogheda will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic indicates a 3-2 win for St Pat’s. There is a 1.9pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 15.1pc probability St Pat’s will score exactly three goals. There is a 12.6pc chance Drogheda will score precisely two.

Top three Poisson outcomes: (1) Drogheda 0 St Pat’s 1 (15.0pc); (2) Drogheda 0 St Pat’s 2 (12.9pc); (3) Drogheda 1 St Pat’s 1 (10.8pc).

Finn Harps v Cobh Ramblers

Two of the predictive methods – Poisson and Rateform – favour a win for Finn Harps in Ballybofey.

Poisson indicates an equal likelihood of either a 1-0 or 2-0 win to Finn Harps. As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, there is a 14pc chance of such an occurrence in both instances. There is a 27.1pc probability Finn Harps will score precisely two goals. There is a 51.8pc chance Cobh will get no goals.

Yet the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, suggests a 0-0 draw. There is a 7pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 13.4pc chance Finn Harps will get no goals.

Top three Poisson outcomes: (1) Finn Harps 1 Cobh 0 and Finn Harps 2 Cobh 0 (14.0pc); (3) Finn Harps 3 Cobh 0 (9.4pc).

Shelbourne v Athlone Town

Two of the predictive methods – Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Shelbourne at Tolka Park.

Poisson suggests an almost equal likelihood of either a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 win for Shelbourne. As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, there is a 13.4pc chance of a 1-1 draw. There is a 36.4pc probability Shelbourne will score precisely one goal. There is a 36.8pc chance Athlone will get one.

By the same token, there is an almost equally likely probability the match will end in a 1-0 win for Shelbourne. There is a 13.3pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.4pc probability Athlone will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests a 1-0 win for Shelbourne.

Top three Poisson outcomes: (1) Shelbourne 1 Athlone 1 (13.4pc); (2) Shelbourne 1 Athlone 0 (13.3pc); (3) Shelbourne 0 Athlone 1 (11.6pc).