League of Ireland Predictions - Galway United v Dundalk

ALL three of our predictive methods – Rateform, Poisson and the score prediction heuristic (SPH), which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a Dundalk win over Galway United at Eamonn Deacy Park on Tuesday.

 

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows there is an almost equal likelihood of either a 2-0 or 3-0 win for Dundalk being the most likely outcome.

 

 

 

Galway (vertical axis) v Dundalk (horizontal axis)

 

Goals

0



1

2

3

4

5

0



2.8

8.1

11.7

11.4

8.2

4.8

1

1.9

5.5

8.0

7.7

5.6

3.2

2

0.6

1.9

2.7

2.6

1.9

1.1

3

0.1

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.2

4

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

There is an 11.7 per cent chance of a 2-0 victory for the Lilywhites. There is an 11.4pc probability of a 3-0 win for Stephen Kenny’s men, the scoreline by which Dundalk beat Galway in the reverse fixture at Oriel Park on Monday 20 April, when Richie Towell netted a hat-trick.

 

There is a 23.1pc chance Dundalk will score precisely two goals. There is a 22.4pc probability they will score exactly three. There is a 50.8pc chance Galway will fail to get a goal.

 

The SPH, which correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Dundalk against Drogheda United in the Co Louth derby at United Park last Friday (3 July), favours a 4-2 victory for the Lilywhites this time round.

 

Be warned though, as the Poisson matrix shows there is only a 1.9pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 16.2pc chance Dundalk will score precisely four goals. There is an 11.7pc probability Galway will score exactly two.

 

There is only a 5.5pc chance Dundalk will get no goals.

    About Robert Reid

    Robert Reid is a sports sub-editor at The Irish Sun. Robert trades the football markets, both here and in the UK. He has the prestigious MSTA designation from the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) in … View Full Profile