League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 18

Our feature game this weekend is the Airtricity League Premier Division fixture between St Patrick's Athletic and Longford Town at Richmond Park.

 

It is live on Setanta Ireland (8pm).

 

All three of our predictive methods – Poisson, which models total goal counts in games, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for St Pat’s in Inchicore.

 

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Liam Buckley’s men. There is a 16.7 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 30.5pc probability St Pat’s will score precisely one goal. There is a 54.7pc chance Longford will get no goals.

 

 

St Pat’s (vertical axis) v Longford Town (horizontal axis)



 

Goals

0

1

2

3



4

5

0

9.6

5.8

1.7

0.4

0.1

0.0

1

16.7

10.1

3.0

0.6

0.1

0.0

2

14.5

8.8

2.7

0.5

0.1

0.0

3

8.4

5.1

1.5

0.3

0.0

0.0

4

3.7

2.2

0.7

0.1

0.0

0.0

5

1.3

0.8

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

The score predictions heuristic suggests a 2-0 win for St Pat’s as being the most likely outcome.

 

As the Poisson matrix shows, a 2-0 victory for the Saints is the second most likely outcome. There is a 14.5pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 26.6pc chance St Pat’s will score exactly two goals.

 

According to Poisson (see our exclusive Poisson matrix immediately below), the most likely outcome in the game between Bohemians and Drogheda United at Dalymount Park is a 2-0 win for the Gypsies. There is a 12.5pc probability of such an occurrence.

 

 

 

Bohemians (vertical axis) v Drogheda United (horizontal axis)

Goals

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

6.0

4.7

1.8

0.5

0.1

0.0

1

12.3

9.5

3.6

0.9

0.2

0.0

2

12.5

9.6

3.7

1.0

0.2

0.0

3

8.5

6.5

2.5

0.6

0.1

0.0

4

4.3

3.3

1.3

0.3

0.1

0.0

5

1.8

1.4

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.0

 

According to Poisson (see our exclusive Poisson matrix immediately below), the most likely outcome in the match between Derry City and Cork City at the Brandywell is a 1-0 win for John Caulfield’s men. There is a 22.1pc chance of such an occurrence.

 

 

 

Derry City (vertical axis) v Cork City (horizontal axis)

 

Goals

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

13.3

22.1

18.4

10.2

4.2

1.4

1

4.7

7.8

6.5

3.6

1.5

0.5

2

0.8

1.4

1.2

0.6

0.3

0.1

3

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

According to Poisson (see our exclusive Poisson matrix immediately below), the most likely outcome in the game between Dundalk and Limerick FC at Oriel Park is either a 3-0 or 4-0 win for the defending champions. There is an equally likely 15.3pc probability of either occurrence.

 

 

 

Dundalk (vertical axis) v Limerick FC (horizontal axis)

 

Goals

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1.4

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1

5.7

1.4

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

2

11.4

2.8

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

3

15.3

3.7

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

4

15.3

3.7

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

5

12.3

3.0

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

According to Poisson (see our exclusive Poisson matrix immediately below), the most likely outcome in the match between Galway United and Shamrock Rovers is a 2-0 win for the Hoops. There is a 12.7pc chance of such an occurrence.

 

 

 

Galway United (vertical axis) v Shamrock Rovers (horizontal axis)

Goals

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

6.1

12.4

12.7

8.6

4.4

1.8

1

4.6

9.4

9.6

6.5

3.3

1.4

2

1.7

3.6

3.6

2.5

1.3

0.5

3

0.4

0.9

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.1

4

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

   

RATEFORM PREDICTS: Bohemians v Drogheda HOME; Derry v Cork AWAY; Dundalk v Limerick HOME; Galway v Shamrock Rovers AWAY; Cabinteely v Wexford Youths AWAY; Shelbourne v Finn Harps AWAY.

 

    About Robert Reid

    Robert Reid is a sports sub-editor at The Irish Sun. Robert trades the football markets, both here and in the UK. He has the prestigious MSTA designation from the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) in … View Full Profile