League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 17
Credit: Extratime Team (ETPhotos)
None of our predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic – see Shamrock Rovers losing against Bohemians in the Airtricity League Premier Division at Dalymount Park (Live RTE 2, 7.35pm).
According to Poisson, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Shamrock Rovers. There is a 19.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence (highlighted in yellow on our exclusive Poisson matrix/grid immediately below). There is a 35.9pc probability Rovers will score precisely one goal. There is a 55.3pc chance Bohemians will get no goals.
|
| Bohemians (red & black) v Shamrock Rovers (green) |
| |||
Goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
0 | 16.1 | 19.9 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
2 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Our exclusive Poisson matrix/grid indicates a 0-0 draw (16.1pc probability) as being the next most likely outcome followed by a 2-0 win for Rovers (12.3pc) and a 1-1 (11.8pc) draw.
Rateform also favours a win for Rovers, who remain unbeaten after their opening 16 games of the 2015 campaign.
The score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, suggests a 0-0 draw as being the most likely outcome.
CORK CITY v BRAY WANDERERS (based on Poisson and Rateform):
Unanimous, a Cork win. Poisson goes 3-0 to Cork (16.7pc).
DROGHEDA UNITED v DERRY CITY (based on Poisson and Rateform):
Unanimous, a Drogheda win. Poisson goes 1-0 to Drogheda (15.5pc).
LONGFORD TOWN v GALWAY UNITED (based on Poisson and Rateform):
Mixed. Poisson goes a 1-1 draw (11.3pc). Rateform goes Longford.
ST PATRICK'S ATHLETIC v LIMERICK FC (based on Poisson and Rateform):
Unanimous, a St Pat’s win. Poisson goes 2-0 (15pc) to St Pat’s, possibly 3-0 (14.4pc).
SLIGO ROVERS v DUNDALK (based on Poisson and Rateform):
Unanimous, a Dundalk win. Poisson goes 2-0 to Dundalk (16.9pc).
CABINTEELY v ATHLONE TOWN (based on Poisson and Rateform):
Unanimous, an Athlone win. Poisson goes 1-0 to Athlone (16.5pc).
FINN HARPS v WEXFORD UNITED (based on Poisson and Rateform):
Unanimous, a Finn Harps win. Poisson goes 1-0 to Finn Harps (13.2pc).
SHELBOURNE v COBH RAMBLERS (based on Poisson and Rateform):
Unanimous, a Shelbourne win. Poisson goes 1-0 to Shelbourne (14.8pc).
WATERFORD UNITED V UCD (based on Poisson and Rateform):
Unanimous, a UCD win. Poisson goes 2-0 to UCD (12.4pc).
About Robert Reid
Robert Reid is a sports sub-editor at The Irish Sun. Robert trades the football markets, both here and in the UK. He has the prestigious MSTA designation from the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) in … View Full Profile