League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 16

YOU will not be surprised to learn that all three of our predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Dundalk at home to Bohemians in the Airtricity League Premier Division.

According to Poisson, which models total goal counts in games, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 21.6pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 29.1pc probability Dundalk will score precisely one goal. There is a 74.1pc chance Bohemians will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-0 win for Dundalk as being the most likely outcome. Dundalk beat Bohemians by that scoreline in the reverse fixture at Dalymount Park on Tuesday 24 April. There is a 12.3pc probability of a repeat of the outcome. There is a 16.6pc chance Dundalk will score precisely three goals.

You can use our exclusive Poisson matrix/grid (available only for the Dundalk versus Bohemians fixture this week) to approximate the likelihood of a whole range of other possible correct score outcomes at Oriel Park.

The Poisson matrix/grid is easy to use. For starters, the home side’s possible goal counts (we have restricted the range of values from 0 to 5) are listed on the vertical axis. The away team’s possible goal counts are listed on the horizontal axis. 

Say, for instance, you believe the game will end goalless. Simply locate the zero value for the home side on the vertical axis, then move your finger one cell to the right for the corresponding zero value for the away side. It returns a value of 11.7pc. That is 8.55 in decimal odds.

Or, say you want to work out the odds for a 2-0 win for Dundalk. This time locate the value 2 for the home side on the vertical axis, then move your finger one cell to the right for the zero value for the away side. It returns a value of 19.9pc. That is 5.03 in decimal odds.

You will find that these odds closely approximate the prices being quoted by the leading bookmakers.

These figures also feed into a calculation of the ‘true’ or ‘fair’ match odds, over/under 2.5 goals and BTTS (both teams to score) markets (see the chart immediately below).

At the time of writing, Paddy Power were 1.30 about a Dundalk win (implied probability 76.9pc). They are overstating the likelihood of a Dundalk victory based on the sum of probabilities of all possible outcomes, as calculated by the Poisson matrix/grid. Anyhow, we would not recommend the home win at prices less than 1.342 (implied probability 74.5pc). Prices below that level do not represent ‘value’.

BRAY WANDERERS v LONGFORD TOWN

All three of our predictive methods favour Longford. According to Poisson, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Longford. There is a 13.2pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 33.1pc probability Longford will score precisely one goal. There is a 39.7pc chance Bray will get no goals. The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-2 win to Longford. There is a 2.2pc probability of such an occurrence. Rateform also favours a win for Longford.

DERRY CITY v ST PATRICK'S ATHLETIC

According to Poisson, the most likely outcome is a 0-0 draw. There is a 21.4pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 54.5pc probability Derry will get no goals. There is a 39.2pc chance St Pat’s will get no goals. Both the score prediction heuristic and Rateform favour a win for St Pat’s. The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 win to St Pat’s. There is a 20pc probability of such an occurrence.

GALWAY UNITED v CORK CITY

All three of our predictive methods favour Cork. According to Poisson, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Cork. There is a 12.9pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.2pc probability Cork will score precisely two goals. There is a 49.2pc chance Galway will get no goals. The score prediction suggests a 2-1 win to Cork. There is a 9.1pc probability of such an occurrence. Rateform also favours a win for Cork.

LIMERICK FC v DROGHEDA UNITED

There is uncertainty of outcome based on our predictive methods, so this fixture is best avoided. Poisson indicates a draw. The score prediction heuristic suggests a win for Limerick on their return to their traditional home at the Markets Field. Rateform favours Drogheda. According to Poisson, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 12pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.3pc probability Limerick will score precisely one goal. There is a 33.1pc chance Drogheda will score exactly one goal. The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 win for Limerick. There is a 7.9pc probability of such an occurrence.

SHAMROCK ROVERS v SLIGO ROVERS

According to Poisson, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Shamrock Rovers. There is a 21.7pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 29.1pc probability Shamrock Rovers will score precisely one goal. There is a 74.4pc chance Sligo Rovers will get no goals. The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-0 win for Shamrock Rovers. There is a 20pc chance of such an occurrence. Rateform also favours a win for Shamrock Rovers.

FIRST DIVISION

All three of our predictive methods favour a win for FINN HARPS against ATHLONE TOWN at Lissywoollen.

According to Poisson, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for the Donegalmen. Finn Harps beat Athlone by that scoreline in the reverse fixture at Finn Park on Friday 10 April.

There is a 42.5 per cent chance Athlone will fail to score. There is a 35.9pc probability Finn Harps will get precisely one goal. There is a 15.28pc chance of a 1-0 win to Finn Harps.

There is a 13.07pc probability of a 1-1 draw. There is a 12.41pc chance of a 0-0 draw.

The score prediction heuristic favours a 2-0 win for Finn Harps. There is a 9.41pc probability of such an occurrence.

Rateform also favours Finn Harps.

Both Rateform and the score prediction heuristic favour a win for COBH RAMBLERS against WATERFORD UNITED at St Pat’s Colman’s Park.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 win for Cobh. There is a 9.8pc chance of such an occurrence.

However, according to Poisson, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 12.7pc probability of the game ending in a 1-1 draw. There is a 35.8pc chance of Cobh scoring precisely one goal. There is a 35.5pc probability of Waterford scoring exactly one goal.

All three of our predictive methods favour a win for UCD against CABINTEELY at the UCD Bowl.

According to Poisson, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for the Students. There is a 15.4pc chance of the game ending in a 2-0 win for UCD. There is a 24.2pc probability of UCD scoring precisely two goals. There is a 63.7pc chance of Cabinteely getting no goals.

The score prediction heuristic goes 4-0 to UCD. There is a 9.7pc probability of such an occurrence.

Rateform also indicates a win for UCD.

All three of our predictive methods also favour a win for WEXFORD YOUTHS against SHELBOURNE at Ferrycarrig Park.

Poisson predicts a 2-0 win for Wexford Youths. There is a 12.9pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.9pc probability Wexford Youths will score exactly two goals. There is a 47.8pc chance Shelbourne will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic goes either 1-0 (12pc) or borderline 2-1 (9.5pc) to Wexford Youths.

Rateform also favours a win for Wexford Youths.