League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 14

CORK CITY have yet to beat any of their current fellow top-five sides in the Airtricity League Premier Division this season but the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, suggests they might when Shamrock Rovers visit Turner’s Cross on Friday.

Their overall record against Rovers, whom they drew 0-0 with the last time the sides met on Friday 20 March, St Patrick's Athletic, Dundalk and Bohemians in 2015 is played four, drew three, lost one.

But the score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-1 win for the Leesiders, who were beaten 5-3 on penalties by St Pat’s after a 1-1 draw and extra-time in the quarter-finals of the EA Sports Cup at Turner’s Cross on Tuesday.

There is a 4.7 per cent chance of such an occurrence.

However, both Rateform and Poisson, which models total goal counts in games, indicate a draw as being the most likely outcome.

The goal probability distribution data suggests a 0-0 stalemate. There is a 25.3pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 44.5pc probability Cork will get no goals. There is a 56.9pc chance Rovers will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 36pc probability Cork will score precisely one goal. There is a 32.1pc chance Rovers will score exactly one goal. So a goalless draw, which Poisson suggests as the most likely outcome, is not a given.

BOHEMIANS v Bray WANDERERS: 

All three of our predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and score prediction heuristic – favour a win for Bohemians. Poisson goes 2-0 to the Gypsies. There is a 25.3pc probability Bohs will score precisely two goals. There is a 59.6pc chance Bray, who beat St Pat’s 1-0 in their first game under new manager Trevor Croly last weekend, will get no goals. The score prediction heuristic hints at a 3-2 win for Bohs. There is just a 1.7pc probability of such an outcome, which makes it unlikely. 

VERDICT: Unanimous – a home win for Bohs.    

DERRY CITY v SLIGO ROVERS: 

None of our predictive methods see Derry losing, although the Candystripes are on a run of four straight games in all competitions without a goal. Poisson is unclear. It suggests either a 0-0 draw or 1-0 win to Derry as being almost equally likely outcomes. There is a 19.3pc chance of a goalless draw. There is a 19pc probability of a 1-0 win to Derry. There is a 37.5pc chance Derry will get no goals. There is a 36.8pc probability they will score exactly one goal. There is a 51.6pc chance Sligo will get no goals. Rateform also suggests a draw or borderline home win. The score prediction heuristic goes 2-0 Derry. There is a 9.3pc probability of such an occurrence. 

VERDICT: None of our predictive methods see Derry losing, although a draw appears likely too.

DROGHEDA UNITED v GALWAY UNITED: 

None of our predictive methods see Galway losing against a Drogheda side that has won just one of its last 12 outings in the league. Both Rateform and the score prediction heuristic favour a victory for Galway. The score prediction heuristic indicates a 2-1 win for the Tribesmen. There is an 8.6pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.9pc probability Galway will score precisely two goals. There is a 32pc chance Drogheda will get exactly one goal. Poisson goes 1-1. There is a 9.3pc probability of such an occurrence. 

VERDICT: Galway are looking for a fourth straight win in all competitions – their best run of the campaign. Our predictive methods suggest they will not lose.

ST PATRICK'S ATHLETIC v DUNDALK: 

None of our predictive methods see Dundalk losing. Two of them – Rateform and Poisson – indicate a win for Stephen Kenny’s side. However, the score prediction heuristic suggests a 0-0 draw as being the most likely outcome. There is a 16pc chance of such an occurrence. Poisson goes 1-0 to Dundalk. There is a 21.4pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 35.1pc chance Dundalk will score exactly one goal. There is a 61pc probability St Pat’s will get no goals. 

VERDICT: Dundalk look set to stretch their unbeaten run from the start of the season to 17 games in all competitions.

CABINTEELY v COBH RAMBLERS: 

Who knows! Poisson goes 0-0. There is a 17.8pc chance of such an occurrence. While Rateform suggests an away win, the score prediction heuristic goes 1-0 to Cabinteely. There is a 13.1pc probability of such an occurrence. 

VERDICT: Inconclusive, so best avoided.

FINN HARPS v UCD: 

Poisson goes 1-0 to Finn Harps. There is a 16.6pc probability of such an occurrence. Rateform also indicates a home win. However, the score prediction heuristic indicates a 0-0 draw. There is a 15pc chance of such an occurrence. 

VERDICT: Finn Harps appear likely to stretch their unbeaten run in the league since the start of the season to 12 games.

SHELBOURNE v WATERFORD UNITED: 

Poisson goes 1-1. There is a 12.3pc chance of such an occurrence. The score prediction heuristic also suggests a draw, either 0-0 or 1-1. There is a 7.7pc probability of a 0-0 draw. Rateform suggests a home win. 

VERDICT: Shelbourne appear unlikely to lose.

WEXFORD YOUTHS v ATHLONE TOWN: 

Poisson goes either a 1-1 draw or 2-1 win for Wexford Youths. There is a 10pc probability of the game ending 1-1. There is a 9.9pc chance of a 2-1 win to Wexford Youths. The score prediction heuristic goes 1-0 to the Ferrycarrig Park outfit as Alan Mathews takes charge of Athlone for the first time. There is an 8.8pc probability of such an occurrence. Rateform indicates a home win. 

VERDICT: Wexford Youths seem unlikely to lose.