League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 13

IT will come as no surprise to learn that all three of our predictive methods – score prediction heuristic, Rateform and Poisson – indicate a home win for Dundalk against Derry City at Oriel Park.

Poisson, which models total goal counts in games, suggests a 2-0 victory for Stephen Kenny’s side as being the most likely outcome. There is a 21.7 per cent chance of such an occurrence.

There is a 26.8pc probability Dundalk will score precisely two goals. There is an 80.7pc chance Derry will get no goals.

The next most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for the Premier Division leaders. There is a 19.8pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 24.6pc chance Dundalk will score exactly one goal.

The score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, indicates a repeat of Dundalk’s 5-0 victory over Derry on the Candystripes last visit to the venue on Monday 8 September last year.

There is a 3.8pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 4.7pc chance Dundalk will score precisely five goals.

A bit far-fetched? We’ll see!

There are also unanimous win verdicts for Bohemians, who are away to Galway United, and Shamrock Rovers, who are at home to Longford Town.

The goal probability distribution data (Poisson) indicates a 1-0 victory for Bohemians, who are unbeaten on their travels this season with four wins and two draws from six road trips.

There is a 19pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 34.5pc chance Bohemians will score exactly one goal. There is a 55.1pc probability Galway will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests a one-goal victory for the Gypsies, but by 2-1.

There is a 7.9pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 24.2pc probability Bohemians will score precisely two goals. There is a 32.8pc chance Galway will net exactly one.

Both Poisson and the score prediction heuristic indicate a 1-0 win for Shamrock Rovers over Longford as being the most likely outcome in Tallaght.

There is a 27.7pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 34.8pc chance Rovers will score precisely one goal. There is a 79.6pc probability Longford will get no goals.

There are three games in the First Division – Athlone Town versus Shelbourne, UCD versus Wexford Youths and Waterford United versus Cabinteely.

ATHLONE TOWN v SHELBOURNE: The score prediction heuristic, Rateform and Poisson all favour an Athlone win. Both the score prediction heuristic and Poisson go 1-0 to Athlone. There is an 18.1pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 32.1pc probability Athlone will score exactly one goal. There is a 56.3pc chance Shelbourne will get no goals. 
VERDICT: Unanimous, an Athlone win.

UCD v WEXFORD YOUTHS: Poisson suggests a 1-1 draw at the UCD Bowl. There is a 12.4pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 36.7pc chance UCD will score precisely one goal. There is a 33.8pc probability Wexford Youths will get exactly one. Rateform also hints at a draw but favours Wexford Youths as the more likely winners. The score prediction heuristic suggests a 4-1 victory for the Ferrycarrig Park outfit. Be advised, there is only a 1.6pc chance of such an occurrence. 
VERDICT: Wexford Youths appear unlikely to lose.

WATERFORD UNITED v CABINTEELY: Both Poisson and the score prediction heuristic indicate a win for Waterford as Roddy Collins takes charge of the Blues for the first time. Poisson goes 1-0 to Waterford. There is a 16.4pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 34.9pc chance Waterford will score precisely one goal. There is a 46.9pc probability Cabinteely will get no goals. The score prediction heuristic also indicates a one-goal victory for Waterford, but by 2-1. There is an 8.4pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 23.7pc probability Waterford will score exactly two goals. There is a 35.5pc chance Cabinteely will get precisely one. Rateform hints at a draw but still favours Waterford as the more likely winners. 
VERDICT: A Waterford win appears likely but a draw cannot be ruled out.