League of Ireland Predictions – Monday games

ALL three of our predictive methods – Rateform, score prediction heuristic and Poisson – suggest a victory for CORK CITY against DROGHEDA UNITED in the Airtricity League Premier Division fixture at Turner’s Cross on Monday.

The score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, and Poisson, which models total goal counts in games, both indicate a 2-0 win for John Caulfield’s side, who can close to within four points of leaders Dundalk with a victory.

There is a 16.6 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 25.5pc probability Cork will score precisely two goals. There is a 65.1pc chance Drogheda will get no goals.

The second most likely outcome is a 3-0 win for Cork. There is a 14pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 25.1pc chance of Cork scoring precisely three goals.

By the same token, there is a 28pc probability Drogheda will score exactly one goal. There is a 7.1pc chance of the game ending in a 2-1 win for Cork. There is a 6pc probability of the match finishing 3-1 in Cork’s favour.

Meanwhile, our three predictive methods are inconclusive in determining an outcome in the rearranged fixture involving ST PATRICK'S ATHLETIC and SHAMROCK ROVERS.

The score prediction heuristic indicates a win for St Pat’s. Rateform favours Rovers. Poisson suggests a draw in the game that was postponed due to a waterlogged pitch on Friday (8 May).

The goal probability distribution data (Poisson) indicates a 0-0 draw as being the most likely outcome at Richmond Park. There is a 28.7pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 61.7pc probability St Pat’s will get no goals. There is a 46.4pc chance Rovers will get no goals.

The second most likely outcome is a 1-0 victory for the Hoops, who have not won on their last seven league visits to Inchicore. There is a 22pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 35.6pc chance Rovers will score precisely one goal.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 win for St Pat’s. There is a 13.8pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 29.8pc chance St Pat’s will score exactly one goal.

Rateform favours Rovers. St Pat’s have a -59.1 points differential compared to the Hoops. Of 16 situations this season where the home team has had a negative points differential under the Rateform method, only two of those fixtures (12.5pc) have resulted in home victories.