League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 12

OUR three predictive methods – the score prediction heuristic, Rateform and Poisson – are inconclusive in determining an outcome in the Airtricity League Premier Division fixture between ST PATRICK'S ATHLETIC and SHAMROCK ROVERS.

The score prediction heuristic – which tracks the shorter-term trends – favours a win for St Pat’s. Rateform  favours Rovers. Poisson, which models total goal counts in games, indicates a draw.

The goal probability distribution data (Poisson) suggests a 0-0 draw as being the most likely outcome at Richmond Park. There is a 22.5 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 55.8pc probability St Pat’s will get no goals. There is a 40.4pc chance Rovers will get no goals.

The next most likely outcome is a 1-0 victory for the Hoops, who have not won on their last seven league visits to Inchicore. There is a 20.4pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 36.6pc chance Rovers will score precisely one goal.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 win for St Pat’s. There is a 13.2pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 32.6pc chance St Pat’s will score exactly one goal.

Rateform favours Rovers. St Pat’s have a -59.1 points differential compared to the Hoops. Of 15 situations this season where the home team has had a negative differential, only two of those fixtures (13.3pc) have resulted in home victories. On this basis, laying St Pat’s is a possible option.

Our predictive methods indicate home wins in the four remaining games in the Premier Division in Gameweek 12.

BOHEMIANS v LIMERICK FC: Poisson goes 2-0 to Bohs. There is a 19.1pc probability of such an occurrence. The score prediction heuristic also suggests a two-goal winning margin for the Gypsies, but by 3-1. There is a 4.8pc chance of such an occurrence.

CORK CITY v SLIGO ROVERS: Poisson goes 2-0 to Cork. There is a 19.6pc probability of such an occurrence. The score prediction heuristic suggests 4-0 Cork. There is a 2.7pc chance of such an occurrence.

DERRY CITY v GALWAY UNITED: Poisson goes 1-0 to Derry. There is a 16.5pc probability of such an occurrence. The score prediction heuristic suggests 1-0 or 2-1 Derry. There is an 8.7pc chance of a 2-1 win for the Candystripes.

DROGHEDA UNITED v BRAY WANDERERS: Poisson goes 1-0 Drogheda. There is a 14.5pc probability of such an occurrence. The score prediction heuristic goes 3-2 Drogheda. There is a 1.9pc chance of such an occurrence.

FIRST DIVISION

ATHLONE TOWN v UCD: Poisson goes 1-0 UCD. There is a 13.9pc probability of such an occurrence. Rateform suggests a draw. VERDICT: UCD appear unlikely to lose.

FINN HARPS v WATERFORD UNITED: Poisson goes 2-0 Finn Harps. There is a 21.9pc probability of such an occurrence. Rateform also favours Finn Harps.VERDICT: Unanimous – a home win.

SHELBOURNE v CABINTEELY: Poisson goes 1-0 Shelbourne. There is an 18.8pc probability of such an occurrence. Rateform suggests a draw. VERDICT:Shelbourne appear unlikely to lose.

WEXFORD YOUTHS v COBH RAMBLERS: Poisson goes 3-0 Wexford Youths. There is a 13.3pc probability of such an occurrence. Rateform also favours Wexford Youths. VERDICT: Unanimous – a home win.