League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 11

Yes, St Pat’s are eight points off the pace in the Airtricity League Premier Division. But they are on an eight-match unbeaten run in all competitions (five wins and three draws) and are just three points adrift of second-placed Cork.

Both our predictive methods – Rateform (2015 only) and the Poisson distribution – see Liam Buckley’s side stretching that unbeaten sequence to nine games with victory at Eamonn Deacy Park in Galway.

Poisson, which models expected goal counts in games, sees a 2-0 win for St Pat’s as being the most likely outcome.

There is a 10.6 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 27.1 per cent probability St Pat’s will score precisely two goals. There is a 39.3 per cent chance Galway will get no goals. By the same token, there is a 36.7 per cent probability the Tribesmen will net exactly one.

Three of Galway’s five home fixtures – against Derry, Longford and Limerick – have resulted in Over 2.5 goals.

Three of St Pat’s five away trips – in Dundalk, Limerick and Longford – have produced three or more goals.

St Pat’s have a 100 per cent record when they score first – four wins from four.

The goal probability data also suggests a 2-0 win for Shamrock Rovers, who are at home to Drogheda, as being the most likely outcome in Tallaght.

There is a 21.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 27 per cent probability Rovers will score precisely two goals. There is a 78.1 per cent chance Drogheda will get no goals.

The Hoops last two home fixtures – against Galway and Dundalk – have both resulted in Over 2.5 goals. Their first three in Tallaght this season were all unders.

Three of Drogheda’s five away trips have resulted in two or fewer goals.

Similar to St Pat’s, Shamrock Rovers also have a 100 per cent record when they score first, with four wins from four.

Rateform also predicts wins for St Pat’s and Rovers.

Meanwhile, our two predictive methods suggest a clean sweep of away wins in the First Division.

Poisson indicates either a 1-0 or 2-0 victory for leaders Finn Harps at Cabinteely. Both outcomes have an equally likely 24.2 per cent chance of occurring. The high-flying Donegalmen are the only side yet to lose on their travels in the First Division.

The goal probability distribution data suggests a 1-0 win for UCD at Shelbourne as being the most likely outcome. There is a 16.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence.

Poisson indicates a 2-0 victory for Wexford Youths in Waterford as being the most likely outcome. There is a 13.8 per cent chance of such an occurrence.

Remember, Shelbourne and Waterford are the only sides yet to win at home this season.

Three away wins to nil in the First Division, we’ll see!