Predicting Dundalk v Cork City

THREE of our four predictive methods – Rateform (2012-14), Poisson and the score prediction heuristic – see Dundalk beating Cork City in the SSE Airtricity League Premier Division title decider at Oriel Park.

However, Rateform (2014 only) disagrees. It suggests the game will end in a draw. A share of the spoils, of course, would see Cork crowned champions at the Co Louth venue.

According to the goal probability distribution data (Poisson), the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 15.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 35.3pc probability Dundalk will score precisely one goal. There is a 45pc chance Cork will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic – which tracks the shorter-term trends – also indicates a victory for Dundalk. It sees Stephen Kenny’s side, which is looking to complete a hat-trick of wins over Cork in the league in 2014, winning by a two-goal margin, possibly by 3-1. There is only a 3.7pc of such an occurrence. There is a 10.2pc probability Dundalk will score precisely three goals. There is a 35.9pc chance Cork will get exactly one.

Cork – beaten 4-0 on their last visit to Oriel Park on Friday 2 May – go into the match on the back of six straight wins in the league, four of them to nil.

Dundalk, in contrast, have drawn their last two outings in the Premier Division – 1-1 v Bray Wanderers (Carlisle Grounds, Friday 17 October) and 0-0 v Shamrock Rovers (Oriel Park, Monday 13 October).

However, the Lilywhites remain unbeaten at Oriel Park in the league, the only side not to lose a home fixture this season. They have won 11 and drawn four of 15 home matches, scoring 43 goals and conceding just nine.

Cork and Dundalk are the only sides to have reached double figures for away wins during the 2014 campaign.

FYI: On average, Cork have been quicker to get off the mark in away games in the league than home matches this season. Their average first-goal time on their travels in the Premier Division is 39 minutes. That is 10 minutes faster than their average first-goal time at Turner’s Cross.

It takes Dundalk 38 minutes, on average, to get off the mark in home games in the league. That is 14 minutes faster than their average first-goal time on their travels.

Also, as our exclusive goal charts (below) reveal, Cork (indicated by the red line on the graph) are at their most effective early in games. Eleven, or 21.6pc, of their 51 goals this season have been scored between the 10th and 18th minute of matches.

Dundalk (indicated by the black line on the graph) have been at their most effective in the final nine minutes of matches. Fourteen, or 19.7pc, of their 71 goals this season have been scored between the 82nd and 90th minute of games.

Cork have been at their most vulnerable in the final nine minutes of games. Four, 17.4pc of the 23 goals they have conceded, have come between the 82nd and 90th minute of matches.

Dundalk have been at their most vulnerable between the 28th and 36th minute of games. Five, 20.8pc of the 24 goals they have conceded, have come in that nine-minute time segment in the first half.

Meanwhile, our predictive methods also indicate that UCD will be automatically relegated, not Athlone Town.

According to the goal probability distribution data (Poisson), the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Athlone over Bray Wanderers at Athlone Town Stadium. There is a 12pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 31.8pc probability Athlone will score precisely one goal. There is a 37.9pc chance Bray will get no goals.

Poisson suggests that the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw in the game between UCD and Drogheda United at The UCD Bowl. There is a 35.4pc probability UCD will score exactly one goal. There is a 29pc chance Drogheda will get precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic indicates a draw in Athlone, possibly 0-0, which was how it ended on Bray’s last visit to Lissywoollen on Friday 2 May.There is a 7.3pc probability of a repeat occurrence of a goalless draw.

The score prediction heuristic sees UCD’s season ending in defeat at home to Drogheda, possibly by 3-0 (4.5pc chance). There is a 27.3pc probability UCD will get no goals. The Students have failed to win their last six league games at The UCD Bowl (two draws and four defeats).

Rateform (2014 only) sees Athlone drawing and UCD losing. Rateform (2012-14) also sees UCD losing and Athlone winning or drawing.

UCD go into the final series of fixtures just a point ahead of Athlone.

POISSON PREDICTS: Bohemians 1 Derry City 1 (13.1pc); Shamrock Rovers 1 Limerick FC 0 (17.9pc); Sligo Rovers   1 St Patrick's Athletic 1 (12.7pc).

RATEFORM (2014 only): Bohemians v Derry City DRAW or borderline AWAY; Shamrock Rovers v Limerick HOME; Sligo v St Pat's AWAY.

RATEFORM (2012-14): Bohemians v Derry DRAW; Shamrock Rovers v Limerick HOME; Sligo v St Pat’s AWAY.