Predicting penultimate series of Premier Division fixtures

ALL four of our predictive methods – Rateform (x2), Poisson and the score prediction heuristic – suggest wins for Dundalk, who are away to Bray Wanderers, and Cork City, who are at home to Bohemians, in the penultimate series of fixtures in the SSE Airtricity League Premier Division   .

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely occurrence is a 2-0 win for Dundalk against Bray at the Carlisle Grounds, scene of one of only three road defeats for the Lilywhites in 2014.

There is a 14.3 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 23.8pc probability Dundalk will score precisely two goals. There is a 60pc chance Bray will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 30.7pc probability Bray will get exactly one goal. Interestingly, the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-terms trends, indicates Bray scoring in a 2-1 defeat for the Seagulls. There is a 7.3pc chance of such an occurrence.

Both the goal probability distribution data and the score prediction heuristic suggest Cork will keep a clean sheet against Bohemians at Turner’s Cross.

Poisson indicates a 1-0 victory for the Leesiders as being the most likely outcome. There is a 16.3pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 30.4pc chance Cork will score precisely one goal. There is a 53.5pc probability Bohemians will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-0 win for Cork. There is a 14.2pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.6pc probability John Caulfield’s side will score exactly two goals.

All four of our predictive methods predict defeats for the league’s bottom two, UCD, who are away to Derry City, and Athlone Town, who take on St Patrick's Athletic at Richmond Park without an away win to their name this season.

Poisson suggests Derry will beat UCD 2-0 at the Brandywell. There is a 13.5pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 25.7pc probability the Candystripes will score precisely two goals. There is a 52.4pc chance UCD will get no goals. The score prediction heuristic sees Derry winning 3-0. There is an 11.2pc probability of such an occurrence.

Poisson indicates a 2-0 win for St Pat’s against Athlone. There is an 11pc chance of such an occurrence. The score prediction heuristic favours a 3-0 victory for the FAI Ford Cup finalists. There is a 10.7pc probability of such an occurrence.

Elsewhere, Poisson favours away wins for Shamrock Rovers (at Drogheda United) and Sligo Rovers (at Limerick), in each instance by 1-0.

There is a 13.1pc chance of such an occurrence at United Park, where the Hoops are looking for their first road win in the league since Pat Fenlon took charge. There is a 31.9pc chance Rovers will score exactly one goal. There is a 41.2pc probability Drogheda will get no goals. By the same token, there is a 36.5pc chance Drogheda will score precisely one.

There is a 13.7pc probability of the game ending in a 1-0 win for Sligo at Thomond Park. There is a 35.5pc chance Sligo will score exactly one goal. There is a 38.6pc probability Limerick will get no goals. By the same token, there is a 36.7pc chance Limerick will get precisely one.

Interestingly, the score prediction heuristic sees the game at United Park and Thomond Park ending in draws, 0-0 in each instance. There is an 8.1pc probability of the game ending goalless at United Park. There is a 10.7pc chance of the match ending 0-0 at Thomond Park.

None of our predictive methods see Shamrock Rovers or Sligo losing.

MOST LIKELY OUTCOMES (based on all four predictive methods): Bray v Dundalk AWAY (unanimous); Cork v Bohemians HOME (unanimous); Derry v UCD HOME (unanimous); Drogheda v Shamrock Rovers (three away win verdicts, one draw prediction); Limerick v Sligo (two away win verdicts, two draw predictions); St Pat’s v Athlone HOME (unanimous).