Predicting Dundalk v Shamrock Rovers

ALL four of our predictive methods – Rateform (x2), Poisson and the score prediction heuristic – indicate a win for Dundalk, possibly to nil, against Shamrock Rovers in the rearranged SSE Airtricity League Premier Division fixture at Oriel Park.

The goal probability distribution data (Poisson) suggests a 1-0 victory for Dundalk, who can move three points clear of title rivals Cork City with a win against Rovers. As things stand, the Lilywhites are top of the 12-team top flight on goal difference. They are also unbeaten at home this season (11 wins and three draws).

There is a 17.5 per cent chance of the game ending in a 1-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 32.8pc probability Dundalk will score precisely one goal. There is a 53.3pc chance Rovers will get no goals.

Remember, Pat Fenlon is still without a road victory in the league since replacing Trevor Croly as manager at Rovers (three draws and a defeat).

By the same token, there is a 33.5pc probability Rovers will score exactly one goal, while there is a 25.6pc chance Dundalk will get precisely two. There is an 8.6pc probability of the game ending in a 2-1 win for the home side.

The score prediction heuristic, which reflects the shorter-term trends, indicates a 4-0 victory for Stephen Kenny’s side. How likely is such an outcome? Needless to say, not very likely. Only a 2.8pc chance, in fact. However, like the goal probability distribution data, the score prediction heuristic is also hinting at a win-to-nil for Dundalk.

For what it is worth, Rovers have lost by three-goal margins on only two occasions this season.