Predicting Athlone Town v Dundalk and UCD v Cork City

Dundalk needed a controversial stoppage-time penalty to beat Athlone Town on their last visit to the Midlands on Monday 21 April.

Richie Towell’s hotly-contested spot-kick on 94 minutes earned the Lilywhites a 1-0 win and denied Athlone a deserved share of the spoils.

Our predictive methods (x4) suggest it will be another win-to-nil for Dundalk in the fixture involving the sides currently top and bottom of the SSE Airtricity League Premier Division.

The goal probability distribution data (Poisson) indicates a 2-0 victory for Dundalk. There is a 17.7 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 69.2pc probability Athlone will get no goals. There is a 25.6pc chance Dundalk will score precisely two.

While Rateform (2012-14 and 2014 only) also favours an away win in Athlone, interestingly the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, sees the game ending in a draw. 

While a goalless draw (5.7pc probability) is indicated it appears unlikely (Dundalk have been involved in just one 0-0 outcome in the league this season). There is only an 8.2pc chance Dundalk will fail to get among the goals.

All four of our predictive methods see Cork beating UCD at The UCD Bowl.

The Students, who are without a win in their last 11 games in the ALPD, are just a point ahead of Athlone with three matches left to play. Cork, meanwhile, are level on points with Dundalk but with an inferior goal difference and a game more played.

Both the goal probability distribution data and score prediction heuristic see Cork winning to nil. Poisson indicates a 2-0 win for the Leesiders, while the score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-0 victory for John Caulfield’s men.

There is a 15.6pc chance of the game ending in a 2-0 win to Cork. There is a 58.2pc probability UCD will get no goals. There is a 26.8pc chance Cork will score precisely two. By the same token, there is a 19.8pc probability they will score exactly three.

Rateform (x2) also favours a win for Cork, who were top of the table after each of their previous matches against UCD this season (April and July). Could they be top again tonight?

POISSON PREDICTS: Bohemians 1 Sligo Rovers 1 (13.4pc chance); Derry City 1 Limerick FC 0 (13.3pc); Drogheda United 1 St Patrick's Athletic 2 (9.5pc); Shamrock Rovers 2 Bray Wanderers 0 (16.6pc).

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC: Bohemians 1 Sligo 0 (11.7pc); Derry 1 Limerick 0 (13.3pc); Drogheda 0 St Pat's 0 (2.8pc); Shamrock Rovers 3 Bray 0 (11.8pc).

RATEFORM (2012-14): Bohemians v Sligo AWAY; Derry v Limerick HOME; Drogheda v St Pat's AWAY; Shamrock Rovers v Bray HOME.

RATEFORM (2014 ONLY): Bohemians v Sligo AWAY; Derry v Limerick DRAW; Drogheda v St Pat's AWAY; Shamrock Rovers v Bray HOME.

IN the other games in the Premier Division, all four of our predictive methods see SHAMROCK ROVERS beating BRAY, and possibly to nil.

Both the goal probability distribution data (Poisson) and the score prediction heuristic see DERRY beating LIMERICK by the same scoreline, 1-0. The Shannonsiders last visit to the Brandywell in April ended in a 0-0 draw.

While three of our four predictive methods favour ST PAT’S in DROGHEDA, the score prediction heuristic indicates a draw, most likely 0-0. However, be advised that there is only an 8.9pc chance St Pat’s will fail to score. In contrast to the score prediction heuristic, the goal probability distribution data favours three or more goals.

There is uncertainty of outcome in the game involving BOHEMIANS and SLIGO at Dalymount Park. While Rateform (x2) both favour Sligo, the score prediction heuristic suggests a win for Bohs. The goal probability distribution data favours a draw. The win markets are best avoided on this basis, although Under 2.5 goals seems more likely based on our analysis.