Predicting Cork City v Drogheda United and Longford Town v Shamrock Rovers B

WHILE three of our four predictive methods – Rateform (x2) and Poisson – indicate a win for Cork City against Drogheda United at Turner’s Cross, the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the short-term trends, does not.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-1 victory for Drogheda, who have won four of their last five road trips in the Airtricity League Premier Division. Having previously lost six on the bounce on the road, they have been reinvigorated since Richardson took charge at United Park, showing improved form both home and away.

It is four wins, three draws and just one defeat in eight games in the league since Rico replaced caretaker Darius Kierans in the Co Louth hotseat.

There is a 5.9 per cent chance of a 2-1 win for Drogheda. There is a 26.7pc probability Drogheda will score precisely two goals. There is a 22.3pc chance Cork will score exactly one.

Rateform (2012-14 and 2014 only) and Poisson paint a different picture, however. All three predictive methods favour a win for John Caulfield’s side. The goal probability distribution data also suggests the game will end in Over 2.5 goals, though with Cork winning 2-1, not Drogheda. There is a 26.3pc probability Cork will score precisely two goals. There is a 30.2pc chance Drogheda will get exactly one.

A win would see Cork join Dundalk in a share of top spot but with an inferior goal difference. Victory for Drogheda would move them into sixth spot in the 12-team top flight, their highest position in the league since April, when they were fifth.

None of our predictive methods see Athlone Town beating Limerick at Thomond Park. Rateform (x2) and the goal probability distribution data suggest a win for the Shannonsiders, who have lost their last three outings in the league at home. They also failed to score on those three occasions.

Only the score prediction heuristic, which is heavily weighted in favour of recent results, indicates Limerick will not win. It suggests a draw and more likely 1-1 than 0-0.

Interestingly, whereas Athlone have drawn their last six games in the league, Limerick have not been involved in a stalemate in any competition since a 1-1 share of the spoils with Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium on Friday 2 May. It is seven wins and 13 defeats over the last five months in all competitions since, with five of those losses coming in their last seven games.

The goal probability distribution data favours a 1-0 win for Limerick as being the most likely outcome. There is a 34.6pc probability Martin Russell’s side will score precisely one. There is a 39.3pc chance Athlone will get no goals. By the same token, there is a 36.7pc chance Athlone will score exactly one, which is consistent with the score prediction heuristic.

Meanwhile, both Rateform (x2) and the score prediction heuristic see Longford Town sealing promotion as First Division champions when they host Shamrock Rovers B at the City Calling Stadium.

A Longford win would send the Midlanders up, which is how our predictive methods see it panning out in the eight-team second tier. A draw would be enough, if Shelbourne fail to beat Galway at Tolka Park. The score prediction heuristic favours a 3-1 win for Longford and indicates a 0-0 draw between Shelbourne and Galway.

In each instance, Rateform (2013-14 and 2014 only) sees Longford winning and the game at Tolka Park ending in a draw. It seems likely Longford will be celebrating tonight.

Rateform (2013-14) favours a home win for Waterford United against Cobh Ramblers. Rateform (2014 only) indicates a draw.