Predicting UCD v Dundalk

All four of our predictive methods – Rateform (x2), the score prediction heuristic and Poisson – indicate a win for Dundalk against UCD in the SSE Airtricity League Premier Division fixture at The UCD Bowl.

No surprise there. But how can you potentially profit? Let’s see.

According to the goal probability distribution data (Poisson), the most likely outcome is a 3-0 win for Dundalk.

There is a 12 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 22.2pc probability Stephen Kenny’s side will score precisely three goals. There is a 54.1pc chance UCD will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 33.2pc probability the Students will score exactly one goal, which suggests they might. There is a 7.4pc chance of the game ending in a 3-1 win for Dundalk. A 2-1 victory for the away side has a 7pc probability of occurring.

On Dundalk’s last visit to The UCD Bowl, on Friday 11 April, they emerged 4-1 winners (5.9pc chance). When the sides last met, at Oriel Park, on Monday 2 June, the Lilywhites won 5-2 (1.2pc probability).

In both instances, UCD claimed the game’s opening goal.

Also, Pat Hoban scored a brace in both those matches.

Hoban – scorer of 20 goals in all competitions this season (16 in the league) – is looking to score in three consecutive fixtures for only the second time this campaign.

The score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, indicates a 2-0 win for Dundalk.  While only Cork City (9) have won more away games than the Lilywhites (8), Dundalk have failed to win on their last three road trips (two draws and a defeat).

There is an 11.3pc chance of a 2-0 victory for Dundalk.

Eleven of Dundalk’s 19 victories in the league have been by two goals or more.

All four of our predictive methods also indicate a win for second-placed Cork City, who host Sligo Rovers at Turner’s Cross in the ‘live’ televised match on RTE Two.

POISSON PREDICTS: Cork City 1 Sligo Rovers 0 (19pc); Bohemians 1 Limerick FC 0 (13.6pc); Derry City 1 Athlone Town 0 (12.3pc); Drogheda United 2 Bray Wanderers 1 (9.9pc); St Patrick's Athletic 1 Shamrock Rovers 0 (13.9pc).

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC SUGGESTS: Cork 1 Sligo 0 (19pc); Bohemians 1 Limerick 0 (13.6pc); Derry 1 Athlone 0 (12.3pc); Drogheda 4 Bray 0 (3.5pc); St Pat’s 2 Shamrock Rovers 1 (9.1pc).

RATEFORM (2012-14):  Bohemians v Limerick DRAW;  Cork v Sligo HOME; Derry v Athlone HOME; Drogheda v Bray HOME; St Pat's v Shamrock Rovers HOME; UCD v Dundalk AWAY.

RATEFORM (2014 only): Bohemians v Limerick DRAW;  Cork v Sligo HOME; Derry v Athlone HOME; Drogheda v Bray HOME; St Pat's v Shamrock Rovers HOME; UCD v Dundalk AWAY.

RATEFORM (FIRST DIVISION; 2013-14): Finn Harps v Shelbourne AWAY; Shamrock Rovers B v Wexford Youths AWAY; Waterford United v Longford Town AWAY.

RATEFORM (FIRST DIVISION; 2014 ONLY): Finn Harps v Shelbourne AWAY; Shamrock Rovers B v Wexford Youths AWAY; Waterford v Longford AWAY.