Predicting Bray Wanderers VS St Patrick's Athletic

ALL four of our predictive methods – Rateform (x2), Poisson and the score prediction heuristic – indicate a win for St Patrick's Athletic against Bray Wanderers at the Carlisle Grounds in the ‘live’ televised match on RTE 2 (7.05pm), possibly to nil.

Interestingly, both the goal probability distribution data (Poisson) and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, suggests a 2-0 win for Liam Buckley’s side.

A win for St Pat’s would see them move to within two points of second placed Cork City in the SSE Airtricity League Premier Division with the Leesiders inactive.

There is a 13.04 per cent chance of the game ending in a 2-0 victory for the Saints, who won 3-1 on their last visit to the Co Wicklow venue on Monday 7 April.

There is a 26.4pc probability St Pat’s will score precisely two goals. There is a 49.4pc chance Bray will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 34.8pc probability Bray will score exactly one goal. So a win-to-nil is no sure thing for St Pat’s, assuming they take the three points at the Carlisle Grounds.

There is a 9.2pc chance of the game ending in a 2-1 win for the Saints.

Our predictive methods reveal uncertainty of outcome in the only other fixture in the Premier Division today involving Athlone Town and Bohemians at Athlone Town Stadium.

Rateform (2012-14 and 2014 only) both favour a win for Bohemians.

However, the score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-1 or borderline 3-1 victory for Athlone, who can move off the bottom of the table with a win with UCD not in action this weekend.

There is a 7.3pc chance of the game ending in a 2-1 victory for Athlone. There is a 2.8pc probability of it finishing 3-1 in the home side’s favour.

The goal probability distribution data suggests a 1-1 draw. There is a 12.5pc chance of such an occurrence, which makes it the more likely of the three scenarios we have outlined.

There is a 36.4pc probability Athlone will score exactly one goal. There is a 34.4pc chance Bohemians will.

Both Rateform (2013-14 and 2014 only) indicates home win for Shelbourne against Shamrock Rovers B and Wexford Youths against Waterford United in the First Division.