Predicting St Patrick's Athletic v Dundalk

TODAY marks the 133rd day since Dundalk last lost in the Airtricity League Premier Division.

Since going down 1-0 to Bray Wanderers at the Carlisle Grounds on Friday 25 April, the Lilywhites have won 12 and drawn four of 16 league games following that surprise reverse.

Of those 16 matches, the only game that they failed to score in was the 0-0 draw against St Patrick's Athletic at Oriel Park on Friday 13 June.

As it happens, St Pat’s are Dundalk’s opponents at Richmond Park tonight in the ‘live’ televised game on RTE Two.

Who do our predictive methods favour?

According to the goal probability distribution data (Poisson), the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 10.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 34.7pc probability St Pat’s will score precisely one goal. There is a 31.4pc chance Dundalk will net exactly one.

Rateform in both its guises (2012-14 and 2014 only) favours an away victory for Dundalk.

Interestingly, Stephen Kenny’s table toppers are unbeaten against current fellow top-six sides on their travels this season (four wins and two draws). They have also scored in all six of those contests.

Only the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, suggests St Pat’s might emerge victorious.

It indicates either a 2-0 or 2-1 victory for the defending champions. There is a 4.5pc chance of a 2-0 win for St Pat’s. There is a 7.6pc probability of the game ending in a 2-1 victory for the home side.

However, if you include only games against fellow top-six teams in the calculations, the score prediction heuristic, like Rateform, also suggests a win for Dundalk.

It indicates a 3-2 victory for Dundalk. However, there is just a 3.5pc chance of such an outcome.

Incidentally, according to our calculation of the ‘true’ or ‘fair’ odds, we rate St Pat’s 2.2 in decimal odds (implied probability 46.15pc) and Dundalk 2.6 (implied probability 38.46pc).

POISSON DISTRIBUTION PREDICTS: Bohemians 1 Bray Wanderers 0 (15pc chance); Cork City 1 Shamrock Rovers 0 (17.9pc); Derry City 0 Sligo Rovers 0 (15.8pc); Drogheda United 1 Athlone Town 1 (9.5pc) or Drogheda 2 Athlone 1 (9.1pc); St Pat's 1 Dundalk 1 (10.9pc); UCD 1 Limerick FC 1 (12.3pc).

RATEFORM (2012-14): Bohemians v Bray HOME win; Cork v Shamrock Rovers HOME/borderline DRAW; Derry v Sligo AWAY win; Drogheda v Athlone HOME; St Pat’s v Dundalk AWAY; UCD v Limerick FC AWAY.

RATEFORM (2014 only): Bohemians v Bray HOME; Cork v Shamrock Rovers HOME; Derry v Sligo AWAY; Drogheda v Athlone HOME; St Pat's v Dundalk AWAY; UCD v Limerick FC AWAY.

FIRST DIVISION

RATEFORM (2103-14 and 2014 only): Waterford United v Shelbourne AWAY.