Predicting the Airtricity League

All four of our predictive methods – Rateform (x2), the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, and Poisson, the goal probability distribution data – indicate leaders Dundalk, who host Bohemians at Oriel Park, will record their 18th league victory of the campaign.

Cork, who are in Athlone, are also favourites to win.

Here is what the stats say.

ATHLONE TOWN V CORK CITY

POISSON PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Cork. There is a 15.2pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 29.9pc probability Cork will score precisely one goal. There is a 50.9pc chance Athlone will get no goals. By the same token, there is a 34.4pc probability Athlone will score exactly one goal. There is a 26.7pc chance Cork will score precisely two.

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC SUGGESTS:  Home win, 1-0 (5.8pc chance).

RATEFORM (2014 ONLY): Away win.

RATEFORM (2012-14): Away win.

SUMMARY: There are three win verdicts for Cork, one for Athlone. Only the score prediction heuristic sees Athlone winning.

BRAY WANDERERS V UCD

POISSON PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 12.4pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 34.7pc probability Bray will score precisely one goal. There is a 35.6pc chance UCD will score exactly one.

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC SUGGESTS: Draw, 1-1 (12.4pc chance).

RATEFORM (2014 ONLY): Draw.

RATEFORM (2012-14): Draw.

SUMMARY: Interestingly, all four predictive methods suggest this game will end in a draw. Do remember that UCD’s only road win this season was a 5-3 victory against Bray at the Carlisle Grounds in March. They have lost their last six away games, the last five of which have all ended in Over 2.5 goals.

DERRY CITY V ST PATRICK'S ATHLETIC 

POISSON PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is an 11.9pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 34.7pc probability Derry will score precisely one goal. There is a 34.4pc chance St Pat’s will score exactly one.

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC SUGGESTS: Home win, 2-0 (5.8pc chance).

RATEFORM (2014 ONLY): Away win.

RATEFORM (2012-14): Away win.

SUMMARY: There are two wins verdicts for St Pat’s, one for Derry, while the score prediction heuristic indicates a draw.

DUNDALK V BOHEMIANS    

POISSON PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 14.8pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.8pc probability Dundalk will score precisely two goals. There is a 54.9pc chance Bohemians will get no goals. By the same token, there is a 32.9pc probability Bohemians will score exactly one goal, so you cannot rule out the possibility of the Gypsies getting on the scoresheet at Oriel Park. There is a 19.6pc probability Dundalk will score precisely three goals.

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC SUGGESTS:  Home win, 4-1 (3.5pc chance).

RATEFORM (2014 ONLY): Home win.

RATEFORM (2012-14): Home win.

SUMMARY: All four predictive methods favour a Dundalk win. The Lilywhites are the only side yet to lose at home this season.

LIMERICK FC V DROGHEDA UNITED

POISSON PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 10.1pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 27.6pc probability Limerick will score precisely one goal. There is a 36.6pc chance Drogheda will score exactly one.

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC SUGGESTS: Home win, 2-1 (9.9pc chance).

RATEFORM (2014 ONLY): Home win/borderline draw.

RATEFORM (2012-14): Draw.

SUMMARY: None of our predictive methods see Limerick losing but can the Shannonsiders be trusted after losing 4-0 at home to Derry on Monday?

SHAMROCK ROVERS V SLIGO ROVERS     

POISSON PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 0-0 draw. There is an 18.4pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 40.5pc probability Shamrock Rovers will fail to score. There is a 45.5pc chance Sligo will get no goals. By the same token, there is a 36.6pc probability Shamrock Rovers will score exactly one goal. There is a 35.8pc chance Sligo will get precisely one. There is a 13.1pc probability of the game ending in a 1-1 draw.

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC SUGGESTS: Home win, 1-0 (16.7pc chance).

RATEFORM (2014 ONLY): Home win.

RATEFORM (2012-14): Draw.

SUMMARY: There are two win verdicts for Shamrock Rovers and two draw outcomes. Shamrock Rovers appear unlikely to lose.

FIRST DIVISION VERDICTS

FINN HARPS V SHAMROCK ROVERS B: Rateform (2013-14): Finn Harps win. Rateform (2014 only): Finn Harps win.

GALWAY V WATERFORD UNITED: Rateform (2013-14): Galway win. Rateform (2014 only): Galway win.

SHELBOURNE V LONGFORD TOWN: Rateform (2013-14): Longford win. Rateform (2014 only): Draw.