Predicting Limerick FC v Derry City

A win for Limerick against Derry City at Thomond Park would see the Shannonsiders leapfrog the Candystripes in the Airtricity League Premier Division table into sixth spot. But can Martin Russell’s side take all three points from the rearranged fixture?

None of our predictive methods – Rateform (x2), Poisson and the score prediction heuristic – see Limerick losing.

While Rateform (x2) and Poisson indicate a draw, the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, suggests a 2-1 win for Limerick as being the most likely outcome.

There is a 6.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is an 18.9pc probability Limerick will score precisely two goals. There is a 36.8pc chance Derry will net exactly one.

The goal probability distribution data favours either a 1-1 or 0-0 draw. There is a 13.5pc chance of the game ending 1-1. There is a 36.8pc probability Limerick will score precisely one goal.

By the same token, there is a 12.8pc probability of the match ending goalless. There is a 35.9pc probability Limerick will get no goals. There is a 35.7pc chance Derry will also fail to score.

For bettors interested in siding with Limerick, the Shannonsiders are a best-priced 2.45 (implied probability 40.8pc). We rate Limerick 2.0 (an even-money proposition, or 50pc chance). So the ‘best’ 2.45 represents ‘value’ based on our ‘fair’ estimation of the ‘true’ odds.