Predicting Bohemians v Shamrock Rovers

All four of our predictive methods – Rateform (x2), Poisson and the score prediction heuristic – suggest Shamrock Rovers will beat Bohemians in the Airtricity League Premier Division fixture at Dalymount Park.

The goal probability distribution data and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, both indicate a 1-0 win for Rovers.

According to the goal probability distribution data, there is a 14.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 38.3pc probability Bohemians will get no goals. There is a 36.8pc chance Rovers will score precisely one.

By the same token, there is a 36.8pc probability Bohemians will score exactly one goal. There is a 19.2pc chance Rovers will score precisely two. There is a 7.1pc chance of the game ending in a 2-1 win for Rovers. There is a 13.5pc probability the match will end in a 1-1 draw.

Can leaders Dundalk make it 15 games without defeat in the league?  Three of our predictive methods – Rateform (x2) and Poisson – favour a win for Stephen Kenny’s side in Sligo.

Whereas the goal probability distribution data suggests a 1-0 win for Dundalk (15pc chance), the score prediction heuristic indicates a 0-0 draw (12.5pc probability).

There is a 41.2pc chance Sligo will get no goals. There is a 36.1pc probability Dundalk will score exactly one.

By the same token, there is a 36.5pc chance Sligo will score precisely one. There is a 21.7pc probability Dundalk will score exactly two.  There is a 7.9pc chance of the game ending in a 2-1 win for Dundalk.

All four of our predictive methods favour a victory for Cork City against Bray Wanderers at Turner’s Cross. While the score prediction heuristic suggests a win-to-nil for the league’s second-placed side, the goal probability distribution data goes 2-0 for the Leesiders (17pc chance). There is a 24.5pc chance Cork will score precisely two goals.

All four of our predictive methods also favour a win for St Patrick's Athletic against Limerick FC at Richmond Park. Again, the score prediction heuristic suggests a win-to-nil in the home side’s favour. The goal probability distribution data also goes 2-0 for the hosts (12.1pc chance).

None of our predictive methods see Derry City losing against Drogheda United at United Park. Rateform (x2) and the score prediction heuristic all see Derry winning. The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-2 victory for the Candystripes. However, with only a 3.5pc chance of such an outcome occurring, a high-scoring, five-goal encounter seems unlikely. The goal probability distribution data indicates a 1-1 draw (10.3pc chance).

Our data indicates a draw as being the most likely outcome in the relegation battle between UCD and Athlone Town at The UCD Bowl. Only Rateform (2014 only), can split the two sides. It favours UCD, but only marginally, with a borderline draw also indicated.

The goal probability distribution data indicates a 1-1 draw (11.4pc chance). The score prediction heuristic suggests a 0-0 stalemate (5.3pc probability).

There is a 22.9pc chance UCD will get no goals. There is a 23pc probability Athlone will draw a blank. By the same token, there is a 33.8pc chance UCD will score precisely one goal. There is also a 33.8pc probability Athlone will score exactly one.