Predicting St Patrick's Athletic v UCD

St Patrick's Athletic are looking to record a ninth consecutive home victory in the Airtricity League Premier Division when they host UCD in the ‘live’ televised game on Setanta Sports (8pm). Can they do it? All our predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform (x2) and the score prediction heuristic – say ‘yes’.

UCD, in contrast, are looking to avoid a sixth straight defeat on their travels. The Students have conceded at least two goals (0-4; 1-2; 1-2; 2-5; 0-2) in each of their preceding five road trips.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 3-0 win for St Pat’s, who lost 1-0 against Cork City at Turner’s Cross last time out.

There is an 11.1 per cent chance of a 3-0 victory for the defending champions. There is a 21.1pc probability St Pat’s will score precisely three goals. There is a 52.7pc chance UCD will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 33.7pc probability the Students will score exactly one goal, so do not rule out the possibility of them finding the net. There is a 7.1pc chance of the game ending in a 3-1 win for St Pat’s, who have a 19.2pc probability of scoring precisely four goals.  There is a 6.5pc probability of the game finishing in a 4-1 victory for Liam Buckley’s side.

Poisson also predicts home wins for Bohemians and Dundalk. According to the goal probability, the most likely outcome in the game between Bohemians and Drogheda United at Dalymount Park is a 2-0 win for the Gypsies. There is a 10.7pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.9pc probability Bohemians will score exactly two goals. There is a 39.8pc chance Drogheda will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 36.7pc probability Drogheda, who are unbeaten in two games in the Airtricity League since Damien Richardson was appointed manager at United Park, will score precisely one goal. There is a 9.9pc probability of the game ending in a 2-1 win for Bohemians.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome in the game involving Dundalk and Limerick at Oriel Park is a 2-0 win for Stephen Kenny’s side. The league leaders are the only team still with an unbeaten home record (eight wins and three draws).

There is a 25.3pc chance Dundalk will score precisely two goals. There is a 54.8pc probability Limerick will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 33pc chance Limerick will score exactly one goal.  There is an 8.3pc probability the game will end in a 2-1 win for Dundalk, who have a 21.7pc chance of scoring exactly three goals. There is a 7.1pc probability of the match finishing in a 3-1 win for the home side.

The goal probability distribution data also predicts away wins for Shamrock Rovers (v Athlone Town) and Cork City (v Derry City).

The most likely outcome at Athlone Town Stadium is a 1-0 win for Rovers, who have a 31.8pc probability of scoring precisely one goal. There is a 42.7pc chance Athlone will get no goals. There is a 13.6pc probability of the game ending in a 1-0 win for Rovers in their first road game since Pat Fenlon took charge at Tallaght Stadium.  

By the same token, there is a 27.1pc chance the Hoops will score exactly two goals. There is a 36.3pc probability Athlone will score precisely one. There is a 9.5pc chance of the game finishing in a 2-1 win for Rovers.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome at the Brandywell is a 1-0 win for Cork over Derry. There is a 14.5pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.6pc probability Cork will score exactly one goal. There is a 39.5pc chance Derry will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 36.7pc probability Derry will score precisely one goal. There is a 13.4pc chance of the game ending in a 1-1 draw.

RATEFORM (2014 only): Athlone v Shamrock Rovers AWAY; Bohemians v Drogheda DRAW; Bray v Sligo AWAY; Derry v Cork AWAY; Dundalk v Limerick HOME; St Pat’s v UCD HOME.

RATEFORM (2012-14): Athlone v Shamrock Rovers AWAY; Bohemians v Drogheda DRAW; Bray v Sligo AWAY; Derry v Cork AWAY; Dundalk v Limerick HOME; St Pat’s v UCD HOME.

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC (short-term trend): Athlone v Shamrock Rovers HOME (including 6-0 victory v Drogheda on Friday 13 June in calculations); DRAW/BORDERLINE AWAY (excluding 6-0 win v Drogheda from calculations); Bohemians v Drogheda HOME; Bray v Sligo AWAY; Derry v Cork HOME; Dundalk v Limerick HOME; St Pat’s v UCD HOME.

FIRST DIVISION: RATEFORM (2014 only): Waterford United v Finn Harps AWAY; Wexford Youths v Shelbourne AWAY.

FIRST DIVISION: RATEFORM (2013-14): Waterford United v Finn Harps DRAW; Wexford Youths v Shelbourne AWAY.

IN SUMMARY:  There are unanimous win verdicts (x4) for St Pat’s at home to UCD, Dundalk at home to Limerick and Sligo away to Bray. None of our predictive methods see Bohemians losing at home to Drogheda. Only one of our predictive methods (the score prediction heuristic in each instance) favour Derry (v Cork, who have three win verdicts) and Athlone (v Shamrock Rovers, who also have three win verdicts). Shelbourne (away to Wexford Youths) also get a unanimous win verdict in the First Division, with Finn Harps not expected to lose in Waterford.