Predicting Drogheda Utd versus Dundalk

On Dundalk’s last visit to United Park on Friday 7 March, they were soundly beaten 4-1 by Drogheda United. In 10 road trips since in the Airtricity League Premier Division, Stephen Kenny’s side have lost just once, a surprise 1-0 reverse against Bray Wanderers at the Carlisle Grounds on Friday 25 April. Against bottom-six sides on their travels, the league leaders have won four and lost two of six such fixtures.

Are they vulnerable again tonight as Damien Richardson takes charge of his second game in the United Park dugout?

Not according to our various predictive methods.

Rateform (x2), the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, and the goal probability distribution data (Poisson) all indicate a win for Dundalk.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 3-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 9.4 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 21.4pc probability Dundalk will score precisely three goals. There is a 43.8pc chance Drogheda will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 36.2pc probability Drogheda will score exactly one goal. Which brings us on to the score prediction heuristic, which suggests Drogheda will get among the goals but with Dundalk winning 2-1. There is a 6.6pc chance of such an occurrence.

Rateform (2012-14) and Rateform (2014 only) also indicate an away victory for Dundalk, who are unbeaten in their last 12 top-flight fixtures (10 wins and two draws). They are also chasing a fifth straight win in the Airtricity League tonight.

Three of our four predictive methods (Rateform (x2) and Poisson) see Pat Fenlon starting his reign as Shamrock Rovers manager with a win against Derry City in Tallaght.

However, the score prediction heuristic indicates a 2-1 win for Derry.

POISSON DISTRIBUTION SUGGESTS:  Cork City 1 St Patrick's Athletic 1 (12.6pc chance); Drogheda United 0 Dundalk 3 (9.4pc); Shamrock Rovers 1 Derry City 0 (14.4pc); UCD 0 Bohemians 1 (12pc).

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC: Cork 1 St Pat’s 0 (11.6pc chance); Drogheda 1 Dundalk 2 (6.6pc chance); Shamrock Rovers 1 Derry 2 (6.1pc chance); UCD 1 Bohemians 3 (5.4pc chance).

RATEFORM (2014 only): Cork v St Pat’s DRAW; Drogheda v Dundalk AWAY; Shamrock Rovers v Derry HOME; UCD v Bohemians AWAY (borderline DRAW).

RATEFORM (2012-14):  Cork v St Pat’s AWAY; Drogheda v Dundalk AWAY; Shamrock Rovers v Derry HOME; UCD v Bohemians AWAY.

BOTH Rateform (2013-14) and Rateform (2014 only) are in agreeance with home wins predicted for Shelbourne (v Cobh Ramblers) and Waterford United (v Shamrock Rovers B). An away victory is signalled for Galway (v Wexford Youths).