Predicting Derry City v Dundalk

After losing their opening match of the 2014 campaign, Dundalk went eight games unbeaten (six wins and two draws) in the Airtricity League Premier Division before their next, and last, defeat.

They are looking to make it another eight league fixtures without a loss when they play Derry City at the Brandywell.

Stephen Kenny’s side are unbeaten since their 1-0 reverse against Bray Wanderers at the Carlisle Grounds on Friday 25 April.

Can they make it another eight without a loss, at the Brandywell?

According to the goal probability distribution data (Poisson), they can.

Based on the predictive method, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 14.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 27pc probability Dundalk will score precisely two goals. There is a 55.2pc chance Derry will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 32.8pc probability Derry will score exactly one goal. There is an 8.9pc chance of the game ending in a 2-1 win for Dundalk.

There is a 61pc probability Dundalk will score a minimum of two goals.

Rateform (2014 only), Rateform (2012-14) and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, also favour a win for Dundalk. The score prediction suggests a 1-0 win for Dundalk (14.5pc chance).

OTHER FIXTURES (most likely outcomes based on the goal probability distribution data): Bohemians 1 Athlone Town 0 (13.6pc chance); Cork City 1 Limerick FC 0 (19.8pc); Drogheda United 0 Sligo Rovers 2 (11.1pc); St Patrick's Athletic 2 Bray Wanderers 0 (13.8pc); UCD 0 Shamrock Rovers 1 (12.6pc).

RATEFORM (2014 only): Bohemians v Athlone (home win); Cork v Limerick (home); Derry v Dundalk (away); Drogheda v Sligo (away); St Pat’s v Bray (home); UCD v Shamrock Rovers (away).

RATEFORM (2012-14): Bohemians v Athlone (draw); Cork v Limerick (home); Derry v Dundalk (away); Drogheda v Sligo (away); St Pat’s v Bray (home); UCD v Shamrock Rovers (away).