Predicting Dundalk v St Pat's and Shamrock Rovers v Cork City

IT appears unlikely that there will be many – if, indeed, any at all – away wins in the Airtricity League Premier Division in the final series of fixtures before the two-week summer break, based on our usual predictive methods.

Drogheda United, who are away to Athlone Town, look the best prospect for a road victory today.

Our featured games are the meetings between leaders Dundalk and defending champions St Patrick's Athletic at Oriel Park and Shamrock Rovers and Cork City at Tallaght Stadium.

Three of our four predictive methods (Poisson, Rateform 2014 and the score prediction heuristic) favour a Dundalk win over St Pat’s. Only Rateform (rolled over season-on-season from 2012) suggests a victory for Liam Buckley’s side.

According to the goal probability distribution data (Poisson), the most likely outcome is a 2-1 win for Dundalk. There is an eight per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 23.8 per cent chance Dundalk will score precisely two goals. There is a 33.6pc probability St Pat’s will score exactly one.

The score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends and is therefore weighted heavily in favour of the more recent results, indicates a 5-2 win for Dundalk. Such an outcome seems highly improbable. Not surprisingly, there is only a 2.2pc chance of such an occurrence.

Still, the overriding message to take from the score prediction heuristic is that it, too, predicts a win for Dundalk, who, like St Pat’s, have netted 27 goals at home this season.

Three of our four predictive methods (Poisson, Rateform 2012-14 and the score prediction heuristic), also favour a win for Shamrock Rovers over Cork. Only Rateform (based solely on this season) disagrees. It indicates a draw as being the most likely outcome.

Interestingly, the goal probability distribution data and the score prediction heuristic both suggest a 1-0 win for Rovers. There is a 14.3pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.8pc probability Rovers will score precisely one goal. There is a 38.8pc chance Cork will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 36.6pc probability Rovers will also get no goals. There is a 36.7pc chance Cork will score exactly one. There is little to suggest Cork will win but plenty to indicate the game could just as easily end in a draw as opposed to a home win.

According to the goal probability data, the most likely outcome in the game between Athlone and Drogheda at Athlone Town Stadium is a 1-1 draw. There is a 10.8pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 33pc probability Athlone will score precisely one goal. There is a 32.8pc chance Drogheda will score exactly one.

According to the goal probability data, the most likely outcome in the game between Bray Wanderers and Bohemians at the Carlisle Grounds is a 0-0 draw. There is a 21.3pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 44.9pc probability Bray will get no goals. There is a 47.5pc chance Bohemians will get no goals.

According to the goal probability data, the most likely outcome in the game between Limerick FC and UCD at Thomond Park is a 1-0 win for Limerick. There is a 14.3pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 30.6pc probability Limerick will score precisely one goal. There is a 46.7pc chance UCD will get no goals.

According to the goal probability data, the most likely outcome in the game between Sligo Rovers and Derry City at the Showgrounds is a 1-0 win for Sligo. There is a 22.7pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 35.2pc probability Sligo will score precisely one goal. There is a 64.6pc chance Derry will get no goals.

In sum (also taking Rateform (x2) into consideration), do not expect Athlone to beat Drogheda or Bohemians to win in Bray. There are unanimous win verdicts for Limerick at home to UCD and Sligo at home to Derry.

In the First Division, Rateform (rolled over season-on-season from 2013) and Rateform (based solely on 2014) favour away wins for Shelbourne at Cobh Ramblers and Longford Town against Finn Harps. Galway FC are expected to beat Wexford Youths at Eamonn Deacy Park.