Predicting Bohemians v Dundalk

Bohemians, who have not won a home league game since Friday 27 September 2013, host Premier Division leaders Dundalk at Dalymount Park tonight.

Can they snap that depressing 245-day sequence without a win at the Phibsboro venue?

Not according to all four of our predictive methods – Rateform (x2), Poisson distribution and the score prediction heuristic.

According to both the goal probability distribution data (Poisson) and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, a 2-0 win for Dundalk is the most likely outcome.

There is a 13.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 27pc probability Dundalk will score exactly two goals. There is a 48.6pc chance Bohemians will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 35.1pc probability Bohemians will score precisely one goal. There is a 9.5pc chance the game will end in a 2-1 win for Dundalk.

There is a 62.2pc probability Dundalk will score a minimum of two goals.

Our estimation of the ‘true’ or ‘fair’ odds about a Dundalk win is 1.6 (implied probability 62.5pc). At the time of writing, Paddy Power, for instance, were 1.7 Dundalk. That is an implied probability of 58.8pc – an underestimation – and represents ‘value’ in our view.

The goal probability distribution data identifies home wins for Cork City against Athlone Town at Tuner’s Cross and St Patrick's Athletic against Derry City at Richmond Park.

According to the goal probability distribution data, a 3-0 victory for Cork against Athlone is the most likely outcome. There is a 13.4pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 22.2pc probability Cork will score exactly three goals. There is a 60.3pc chance Athlone will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 30.5pc probability Athlone will score precisely one goal. There is a 6.8pc chance the game will end in a 3-1 win for Cork.

There is an 83.1pc probability Cork will score a minimum of two goals.

According to the goal probability distribution data, a 1-0 win for St Pat’s against Derry is the most likely outcome. There is an 18.3pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 33.4pc probability St Pat’s will score exactly one goal. There is a 54.8pc chance Derry will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 25.1pc probability St Pat’s will score precisely two goals. There is a 33pc chance Derry will score exactly one goal. There is an 8.3pc probability the game will end in a 2-1 win for St Pat’s.

The goal probability distribution data suggests 1-1 draws in the other Premier Division games involving Drogheda United and Limerick FC at United Park and UCD v Bray Wanderers at the UCD Bowl.

There is a 13.3pc chance of a 1-1 draw in Drogheda and a 13pc probability of a similar outcome at UCD.

According to Rateform (x2) all four games in the First Division – Longford Town v Shamrock Rovers B, Shelbourne v Galway FC, Waterford United v Cobh Ramblers and Wexford Youths v Finn Harps – are likely to result in a clean sweep of home wins.