Predicting Shamrock Rovers v Bohemians

All of our predictive methods – score prediction heuristic, Rateform (x2) and the Poisson distribution – favour a win for Shamrock Rovers against Bohemians at Tallaght Stadium.

Interestingly, both the score prediction heuristic – which tracks the shorter-term trends - and the goal probability distribution data (Poisson) indicate a 1-0 win for Rovers as being the most likely outcome. There is a 14.7pc chance of such an occurrence. This represents ‘fair’ odds of 6.80 in decimal notation. At the time of writing, Paddy Power, for instance, were 6.50 about a 1-0 home win. However, do remember, that even the most likely scorelines are not that likely.

According to the goal probability distribution data, there is a 32.1 per cent chance Rovers will score precisely one goal. There is a 47.1pc probability Bohs will get no goals.

By the same token, there is a 26.4pc chance Rovers will score exactly two. There is a 35.5pc probability the Gypsies will score precisely one. There is a 9.3pc chance of the game ending in a 2-1 win for Rovers.

There is a 50.4pc probability Trevor Croly’s side will score a minimum of two goals.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely scoreline in the game between Athlone Town and UCD at Athlone Town Stadium is a 1-1 draw. There is a 10.6pc chance of such an occurrence.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely scoreline in the game between Bray Wanderers and Cork City at the Carlisle Grounds is a 1-0 win for the Leesiders. There is a 15.3pc chance of such an occurrence.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely scoreline in the game between Derry City and Drogheda United at the Brandywell is a 1-0 win for the Candystripes. There is a 14.7pc chance of such an occurrence.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely scoreline in the game between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers at Oriel Park is a 1-1 draw. There is a 12.8pc chance of such an occurrence.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely scoreline in the game between Limerick FC  and St Patrick's Athletic at Thomond Park is a 1-0 win for Liam Buckley’s Saints. There is a 16.5pc chance of such an occurrence.

In summary (considering Rateform (x2) and the goal probability distribution data), Cork, St Pat’s and Shamrock Rovers look likely winners, while UCD, Derry and Dundalk seem unlikely to lose, with draws a possibility in all three of those games.